Trump in the Lead in 15 Battleground States? Don’t Believe It – TheStreet

Posted: May 26, 2020 at 8:48 pm


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A recent poll shows Trump is in the lead in 15 key states. Let's investigate.

Hannity reports Joe in Trouble: Trump Beating Biden in 15 Battleground States

A shocking new poll spells big trouble for Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden; showing President Trump beating Biden in 15 battleground states that will likely decide the 2020 election.

583 People Surveyed

The poll was conducted by SSRS for CNN.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states, defined as the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016 -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Survey Math

583 people / 15 states = 38.9 people per battleground state.

Surveying less that 40 people per state then averaging them together is of course ridiculous.

So, let's dive further into individual state polls.

Latest State Polls

Those are not in date order. Rather, they are in the order in which FiveThirtyEight presented them.

The SSRS poll is clearly ridiculous, but that is what happens when you poll an average 39 people for 15 states then lump everything together.

Shocker

If you are looking for a shocker, look no further than Georgia.

Georgia was not supposed to even be in play for Biden, yet the more recent of the two polls has Biden in the lead.

Not a Shocker

Hannity all of a sudden believes a poll sponsored by CNN.

Mish

Continued here:

Trump in the Lead in 15 Battleground States? Don't Believe It - TheStreet

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May 26th, 2020 at 8:48 pm

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