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Investor cohorts outpace Bitcoin's monthly mined supply for the first time since early December - CryptoSlate

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In a bitcoin production and mining operation update published yesterday, Marathon Digital Holdings announced that it produced a company-record 1,853 bitcoins ($81.2 million at current prices) last month.

The firm mined 12,852 bitcoins ($563.4 million) last year, more than tripling its mining output from 4,144 BTC in 2022. Marathon also increased its average operational hash rate by 18% month-over-month to 22.4 EH/s.

In December, we increased our energized hash rate 4% to 24.7 exahashes and extended our lead as the largest publicly traded bitcoin miner in North America, Marathons chairman and CEO, Fred Thiel, said in a press release. We continue to30% growth in energized hash rate in 2024 and with the recently announced acquisition of the two sites from Generate Capital, which is expected to close in January 2024, we expect to reach 50 exahashes in the next 18 to 24 months."

Marathon attributes its production growth directly to higher transaction fees on the Bitcoin network. "MaraPool collected more than 380 BTC in transaction fees or 22% of BTC production, up from 12% of production last month," the company noted.

Marathon holds over 15,000 bitcoins as of Dec. 31, 2023.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2023 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Marathon's bitcoin production growth surges, bolstered by high fees - The Block - Crypto News

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were falling Wednesday amid creeping doubt that the U.S. government will soon approve Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Approval still looks likely, but it would behoove investors to hedge their bets.

Bitcoin has fallen 5.6% to $42,466 over the last 24 hours. The largest cryptocurrency was falling back after it had broken through $45,000 for the first time in more than a year on Tuesday.

Most of the drop occurred soon after Matrixport, a crypto financial-services platform, predicted Wednesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission would reject all ETF applications in January. Matrixports head of research, Markus Thielen, wrote in the report that a denial by the SEC could temporarily push Bitcoin prices back to between $36,000 and $38,000, although he still expected the cryptocurrency to rise overall in 2024.

The report was in stark contrast to other analysts, who have expressed near certainty that the SEC will approve the Bitcoin ETFs as soon as this week. Analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, for example, give a 90% chance of approval this monthin part because of scores of SEC filings by issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco indicate heavy engagement by SEC staff on the funds. Multiple potential issuers of the ETFs have recently detailed their planned fees for the funds.

The SEC declined to comment.

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Doubts over the ETFs approval contributed not just to Bitcoins fall but to that of crypto-related stocks. Coinbase Global fell 4.25% in early trading to $150, while shares of Bitcoin mining companies Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms fell 2.5% and 5.2% respectively.

While ETF approval looks more likely than not, theres still reason investors should think twice before bolstering crypto-related bets as a result of it.

For one, as Wednesdays market reaction to the research report shows, it appears the market has already nearly priced in the ETFs approval. That makes the upside of approval minimal, but the potential downside severe if the SEC denies or delays the applications again.

Take prices of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ,

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That discount on Tuesday had narrowed all the way to 8%, indicating that investors have little doubt it will soon be able to convert.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan have forecast that even if approval is given, it could be a sell-the-news moment.

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Meanwhile, some policy analysts say the SEC could still seek to thwart the ETFs launches.

While ETF applicants have been iterating with SEC staff, we believe political forces are likely to override the process, resulting in further delay or denial of the updated ETF applications, wrote PolicyPartner analyst Matthew Wholey in a research note last week.

Wholey noted the Biden administration has identified crypto as a threat to financial stability if it becomes more connected to the traditional financial system without increased oversight of the markets that facilitate crypto trading.

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However, other analysts are more confident in Bitcoins rally.

We believe the fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin is solid at the moment, reflecting broad-based accumulation by long-term investors, slowing supply growth from the Bitcoin miners, and a very high likelihood that the long-debated physically-backed US exchange traded funds will eventually be approved, wrote Carsten Menke, head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, in a research note.

Meanwhile, analysts at AllianceBernstein wrote in a research note that Bitcoin could potentially end the year at around $80,000, according to MarketWatch, citing the potential ETF approval, the so-called halving event expected in April, and growing demand from companies.

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, was down 4.8% at $2,219. Among smaller cryptocurrencies, Solana dropped 9.9% and Cardano fell 9.1%. Dogecoin was down 10.5%.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com and Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com

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Bitcoin Price Drops. Crypto Investors Should Hedge Their Bets. - Barron's

US Economic Calendar & Bitcoin ETF Ruling in Weekly Spotlight  BeInCrypto

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US Economic Calendar & Bitcoin ETF Ruling in Weekly Spotlight - BeInCrypto

This week marked the 15th year since the first block, the genesis block, was mined on the Bitcoin blockchain. For more than 10 of those years, industry stalwarts have pleaded with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), an instrument that's predicted to open the floodgates to a wave of institutional investment.

So far, the SEC has rejected every application, but that may be about to change. Analysts are predicting that at least one of the more than a dozen current proposals will be approved as early as Friday.

Opinions on what will happen in the crypto market if approval is granted are mixed.

Gabor Gurbacs, the director of digital assets strategy at VanEck, said that while a spot ETF will create "trillions in value" over the long term, people tend to "overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs," and initial flows will equal only "a few hundred million of (mostly recycled) money."

Other analysts say approval will require ETF issuers to purchase tens of billions dollars of bitcoin to satisfy the institutional demand, leading to a radical shift in the supply and demand dynamics. Some analysts even predict a "supply shock" after exchange balances fell to a five-year low in October. A lack of bitcoin on exchanges suggests holders are storing it in their personal wallets, a sign they're less inclined to sell.

Analysis of flows into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the first spot gold ETF in the U.S., which debuted in 2004, is informative. GLD amassed $1.9 billion in inflation-adjusted terms in its first four weeks, with the tally rising to $4.8 billion by the end of the first year, according to crypto exchange Coinbase. The ETF currently has $57.37 billion in total assets.

Going back further in time, Invesco's QQQ, an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 index of some of the world's most innovative companies, was launched in March 1999, a year before the dotcom bubble burst. The fund saw inflows of $847 million ($1.6 billion in today's dollars) in the first 30 days.

And closer to home, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), based on bitcoin futures, amassed around $1.5 billion in inflation-adjusted terms in the 30 days after its introduction in October 2021, when sentiment across crypto asset classes was uber bullish. As of Thursday, the fund held $1.65 billion in total assets.

BITO, which invests in regulated CME futures rather than actual cryptocurrency, is exposed to rollover costs. The fund has, nevertheless, closely tracked bitcoin's spot price since inception and been a viable option for people looking for exposure to bitcoin without the ownership and storage hassles.

Another consideration is the global economy, with elevated risk-free interest rates worldwide and worsening household finances. That macroeconomic environment plays against a scenario of strong mainstream uptake for spot ETFs.

Bitcoin has rallied 61% since early October, largely on expectations the SEC will approve one or more of the spot ETF applications. That's prompted several analysts to forecast a sell-the-news-led pullback once the ETFs go live. They say the price will drop as investors who'd benefited from the run-up sell to lock in their profits once the news is confirmed.

Consider the debut of CME bitcoin futures in December 2017, Coinbase's listing on Nasdaq in mid-April 2021, and the debut of several futures ETFs, including BITO. On those occasions, bitcoin had been rallying only to crash in the weeks after the events.

For instance, bitcoin surged 15% in the three days before the SEC approved the first futures ETFs. A month later it hit a record high $69,000 and then crashed into a bear market that lasted for more than a year.

CryptoQuant suggested last week that bitcoin could slump to as low as $32,000 because the amount of unrealized profits in the market is at a level that historically precedes a so-called price correction, often considered a drop of 10% in crypto markets. Bitcoin rallied 160% last year and has gained almost 4% this month.

CryptoQuant is not alone in predicting a decline. QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto trading firm, said on Telegram last month that initial demand for the ETFs could be lower than expected, setting the stage for a classic sell-the-news scenario.

Investors concerned about a replay of what followed the launches of CME futures and ProShares' BITO may want to note that both came when the market, having rallied by several hundred percent in 12 months, looked ripe for a correction.

This time round, the expected spot ETF launch comes ahead of the Bitcoin blockchain's quadrennial mining-reward halving, which has previously marked the beginning of meteoric price rallies. It also follows this week's brief price slide to $41,000 in a sell-off that liquidated $400 million in leverage bets and wiped out $2 billion in futures open interest.

The difference between earlier sell-the-news events and this one is that a spot bitcoin ETF involves actual bitcoin, removing supply from the market. The CME's launch of futures prompted price declines because it allowed traders to synthetically short the cryptocurrency following a ferocious bull market that was led by 2017's unsustainable ICO mania.

Another aspect of a spot bitcoin ETF is that institutional investors such as the typically conservative pension funds and insurance funds will gain a way to add exposure to native bitcoin, as opposed to an ETF derivative or bitcoin proxy shares like Coinbase (COIN) or MicroStrategy (MSTR).

There are currently 35 gold ETFs in the U.S., with total assets under management standing at $118.70 billion. A recent report by financial services firm NYDIG drew parallels between them and a potential bitcoin ETF.

"Given Bitcoins roughly 3.6 times higher volatility compared to gold, investors would need approximately 3.6 times less Bitcoin than dollar-denominated gold to achieve an equivalent level of risk exposure," the report said. "This would still translate to an additional demand of nearly $30 billion for a Bitcoin ETF."

UPDATE (Jan. 5, 14:05 UTC): Adds bullet points at top of the story.

Originally posted here:

If a Bitcoin ETF Is Approved, Heres What May Happen - CoinDesk

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated .

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, institutional digital assets exchange. Bullish group is majority owned by Block.one; both groups have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary, and an editorial committee, chaired by a former editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal, is being formed to support journalistic integrity.

The rest is here:

Arthur Hayes Foresees 30% Bitcoin Crash Amid 'Vicious Washout.' Here's Why - CoinDesk

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated .

The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, institutional digital assets exchange. Bullish group is majority owned by Block.one; both groups have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary, and an editorial committee, chaired by a former editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal, is being formed to support journalistic integrity.

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VanEck to Donate 5% of BTC ETF Profits to Bitcoin Core Developers - CoinDesk

Bitcoin surged to start 2024, topping $45,000 for the first time since April 2022 amid an uptick in geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and growing optimism around a potential bitcoin exchange-traded fund approval.

The world's largest cryptocurrency hit an intraday high of $45,913.30 early Tuesday morning, according to Coin Metrics. That was its highest level since April 5, 2022, and the first time it has traded above the $45,000 mark since then. It was last higher by nearly 3%, trading at $44,952.89.

The increase showed bitcoin's role as a hedge against uncertainty, which investors became familiar with last year. Over the weekend, a Maersk vessel came under attack by four small boats crewed by Houthi militants, who are based in Yemen and backed by Iran.

Most of the six-month rally in bitcoin is tied to the potential ETF, but before that narrative came into play, bitcoin's biggest catalyst was the regional banking crisis in the U.S. That led to bitcoin's first big gain of the year, allowing the cryptocurrency to shine as an alternative to the legacy system in place and hedge against uncertainty.

The move also comes amid continued excitement among traders that the U.S. could approve the first bitcoin ETF. This would allow investors to buy a product that tracks the price of bitcoin without having to own the cryptocurrency directly, likely appealing to larger institutional investors.

On Friday, BlackRock and other potential issuers updated the registration forms for their proposed bitcoin ETFs, including names of authorized participants. Investors are reading that extra detail as evidence that a decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is coming soon. Many industry experts expect the funds to be approved in January.

The continued price gains for bitcoin follow 2023's hot streak, when the price of the digital coin rose 157% and many expect the pop to continue.

Investors have high hopes for bitcoin in 2024. A decision on an ETF is widely expected to come sometime in January. Shortly after, in the spring, the Bitcoin halving is expected to take place, an event that historically has preceded steep price increases. Plus, Fed officials are anticipating at least three interest rate cuts this yearafter almost two years of hikes that have hurt the cryptocurrency.

Other cryptocurrencies also ticked higher Tuesday. Ether traded at around $2,367, up roughly 1%.

CNBC's Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

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Bitcoin tops $45,000 for the first time since April 2022 as crypto jumps to kick off new year - CNBC

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CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Ari Redbord of TRM Labs takes a look back at last year's court hearings and trials against some of the biggest names in the industry. He also discusses what to expect in 2024.

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Thu, Jan 4 20243:00 PM EST

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Bitcoin bounces back above $44,000 amid volatile start to 2024 - CNBC

Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $44,000 into its first weekly close of 2024 as multiple new volatility catalysts lined up.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed narrowing volatility in BTC price performance over the weekend.

Markets remained nervous as to how BTC/USD might react to the approval or denial of the United States first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) a decision due by Jan. 10.

As Cointelegraph reported, the seminal event is widely predicted to deal a temporary blow to bulls in the form of a BTC price retracement in a sell the news event. Others see a chance for knee-jerk upside potentially challenging key psychological levels.

Regardless of which direction the move might take, indicators nonetheless pointed to a breakout from the narrow intraday range.

Among them was the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, now narrowing on daily timeframes in a classic precursor to range expansion.

Bollinger Bands tightening even more heading into ETF week, trader and commentator Matthew Hyland told subscribers on X (formerly Twitter) overnight.

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades added that the so-called spot premium was once again active on Bitcoin markets, with derivatives traders seemingly wary of going long or short after last weeks snap liquidations.

The longer we range around this price area the more positions will build up with stop losses/liquidations sitting above and below the price, he continued, alongside a heatmap of leveraged BTC/USDT liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance.

While attention remained focused on the ETF, macroeconomic hurdles were waiting in the wings.

Related:March banking crisis rerun risks 40% Bitcoin price crash Arthur Hayes

These were in the form of U.S. inflation data, with the December prints of both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index due in the coming days.

Traditionally a source of short-term volatility for crypto and risk assets in their own right, the data releases would ostensibly need to show inflation continuing to subside.

As Cointelegraph reported, the key result of this the Federal Reserve pivoting on interest rate policy is not currently expected to occur at its next dedicated meeting at the end of the month.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin traders see breakout as bulls cling to $44K in ETF countdown - Cointelegraph