Defense budget cuts following the pandemic will be hard to swallow | TheHill – The Hill
Posted: April 19, 2020 at 2:52 pm
Congress has appropriated more than $2.25 trillion to counter the impact of COVID-19 on American families and the economy. It is likely to spend even more once legislators return from their recess in early May. This unprecedented level of expenditure is resulting in a massive deficit and national debt levels that are likely to exceed 120 percent of the nations gross domestic product, especially as GDP growth itself is no longer a foregone conclusion. In turn, there will be renewed pressure on the defense budget, which already is forecast to have no real growth in fiscal year 2021.
Interest on the national debt, which at some point will begin to rise again, will create a massive burden on annual federal budgets. The demand for increases in domestic spending will be difficult to ignore in the aftermath of the pandemic. For these reasons, it is not beyond the realm of probability that defense budgets beginning in fiscal year 2022 will not even grow in nominal terms.
Even if the Department of Defense (DOD) had been forced to address only the reality of no real growth in defense spending as opposed to the additional burden of minimal nominal growth it would have had to re-evaluate its spending priorities. Historically, when DOD has been forced to undertake what it terms cut drills, these have been done with the greatest reluctance, and at times have been completed with little analysis of the implications of potential trade-offs. Invariably, what resulted from these efforts were reductions in spending for operations and maintenance, force level reductions, or the shedding of research and development of untried weapons and systems. On the other hand, the department and especially the armed services were exceedingly reluctant to dispense with longstanding legacy programs.
This time, however, DOD faces a budget challenge of unmatched proportions. Defense budgets are certain to decline in real terms. Indeed, should the Democratic Party take the White House or the Senate (or both) in the upcoming elections, even deeper cuts in defense are sure to follow. Yet the threats posed by China and Russia, already projected to increase, may well prove to be even greater in the face of a weakened and disorganized West. The DOD, therefore, will have to take seriously the need for a fundamental re-evaluation of its priorities, and not merely undertake another cut drill.
The last time the department fundamentally shifted its focus was in the early 1990s, when its base force resulted in a 25 percent reduction in force structure, a 20 percent reduction in manpower relative to fiscal year 1990 and a 10 percent reduction in budget authority. DOD may have to consider launching an effort along similar lines if it is not to be caught flat-footed next year, as a result of either the full budget impact of coronavirus spending or the November elections, or both.
As with the base force, force levels are a likely target for reductions. Pay and benefits, to include family housing, are untouchable because they are key to maintaining a top-level volunteer force. This is especially critical at this time because, in the aftermath of the viruss spread within the military, it may prove difficult for the services to maintain their recruitment objectives. Similarly, operations and maintenance budgets cannot be tampered with to maintain deterrence against possible new adventurism on the part of Russia, China, North Korea or Iran.
Apart from force-level reductions, therefore, the only other candidates for cuts are research and development and the procurement accounts. Reductions in R&D, typically favored in cut drills, will be more difficult, given the need to maintain an advantage over Russia and China in the realms of hypersonics, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other cutting-edge technologies. Procurement accounts are thus the only remaining targets for budget reductions.
Budget cutters for years have zeroed in on the strategic nuclear triad, and current plans for its modernization offer them new targets. Global Strike Command is seeking $200 billion over the next decade to fund new bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, command and control and related supporting elements of the strategic nuclear triad. On the other hand, longtime opponents of spending on strategic nuclear forces will argue against the need for a new bomber, and instead will call for converting the strategic nuclear triad to a dyad of land- and submarine-based missiles. Other critics of the triad may support the bomber program and might prefer dispensing with the land-based leg in favor of the bomber and submarine legs. Budget pressures will underscore both sets of arguments.
With respect to general purpose forces, there no doubt will be a renewed call to halt all aircraft carrier procurement beyond the two Ford class carriers under construction, or at best to support construction of one more. Even President TrumpDonald John TrumpWuhan lab denies claims of coronavirus origination Banks say they ran out of PPP funding 'within minutes' Trump defends testing capabilities, blasts critics during WH briefing MORE at one point voiced his concern about the program. Given its skyrocketing costs, the F-35 also may find itself in the crosshairs of budget hawks. The Army recently dropped its program to develop an Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle, its third attempt to replace the 1980s Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle, only to renew it several weeks later. It might have to drop it again. Finally, there have long been calls for a re-evaluation of the elements and costs of the nearly four-decades-old missile defense program.
Cutting procurement is always a difficult pill for the services to swallow, and this time will be no different. No doubt DOD will point to the need to maintain the defense industrial base, and workers jobs, as a reason for avoiding major reductions in defense procurement. That argument certainly will resonate with Congress. This time, however, the case for resisting change may be overwhelmed by the impact of a plague that has caught the nation unprepared and may well return with even greater force in the months or years ahead.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was under secretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy under secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
Read the original:
Defense budget cuts following the pandemic will be hard to swallow | TheHill - The Hill
- Cambridge named as world-leading centre of quantum computing research - Varsity Online - February 5th, 2021
- Quantum Computing Market 2018 Size, Application,Revenue, Types, Trends in Future, Scope to 2030 | D-Wave Systems Inc., QX Branch Co., IBM Co., Google... - February 5th, 2021
- Quantum computing breakthrough uses cryogenics to scale machines to thousands of times their current size - The Independent - February 3rd, 2021
- Quantum Computing Market worth $1,765 million by 2026 - Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets - PRNewswire - February 3rd, 2021
- IBM's Goldeneye: Behind the scenes at the world's largest dilution refrigerator - ZDNet - February 3rd, 2021
- Establishing a Women Inclusive Future in Quantum Computing - Analytics Insight - February 3rd, 2021
- The risk of giving in to quantum progress - ComputerWeekly.com - February 3rd, 2021
- Quantum Computing 101 -What it is, how is it different and why it matters - The Jerusalem Post - February 3rd, 2021
- Here's Why Quantum Computing Will Not Break Cryptocurrencies - Forbes - December 24th, 2020
- Global Quantum Computing Market Predicted to Garner $667.3 Million by 2027, Growing at 30.0% CAGR from 2020 to 2027 - [193 pages] Informative Report... - December 24th, 2020
- Quantum Computer Completed A 2.5-Billion-Year Task In 200 Seconds - Intelligent Living - December 24th, 2020
- University collaboration gives Scotland the edge in global quantum computing race - HeraldScotland - December 24th, 2020
- Scaling the heights of quantum computing to deliver real results - Chinadaily.com.cn - China Daily - December 24th, 2020
- Bitcoin is quantum computing resistant regardless of rising fears among investors - FXStreet - December 24th, 2020
- This Incredible Particle Only Arises in Two Dimensions - Popular Mechanics - December 24th, 2020
- Two Years into the Government's National Quantum Initiative - Nextgov - December 24th, 2020
- Atos Delivers Its First GPU-Accelerated Quantum Learning Machine to the Irish Centre for High-End Computing - HPCwire - December 24th, 2020
- With Next Cryo, a startup that's really cooling its jets - Innovate Long Island - Innovate Long Island - December 24th, 2020
- Chip-Based Photon Source Is 100X More Efficient than Previous, Bringing Quantum Integration Within Reach - HPCwire - December 24th, 2020
- Quantum computing - Wikipedia - December 17th, 2020
- What is quantum computing? - December 17th, 2020
- Explainer: What is a quantum computer? | MIT Technology Review - December 17th, 2020
- Eight leading quantum computing companies in 2020 | ZDNet - December 17th, 2020
- Wall Streets latest shiny new thing: quantum computing - The Economist - December 17th, 2020
- Quantum computing: Strings of ultracold atoms reveal the surprising behavior of quantum particles - ZDNet - December 17th, 2020
- Anyon Systems to Deliver a Quantum Computer to the Canadian Department of National Defense - GlobeNewswire - December 17th, 2020
- Chinese quantum computer may be the most powerful ever seen - Siliconrepublic.com - December 17th, 2020
- 'Magic' angle graphene and the creation of unexpected topological quantum states - Princeton University - December 17th, 2020
- This breakthrough could unlock the true power of quantum - Wired.co.uk - December 17th, 2020
- ASC20-21 Student Supercomputer Challenge Kickoff: Quantum Computing Simulations, AI Language Exam and Pulsar Searching with FAST - Business Wire - November 28th, 2020
- Imperfections Lower the Simulation Cost of Quantum Computers - Physics - November 28th, 2020
- Quantum Computing Market : Analysis and In-depth Study on Size Trends, and Regional Forecast - Cheshire Media - November 28th, 2020
- Global Quantum Computing Market 2020 Recovering From Covid-19 Outbreak | Know About Brand Players: D-Wave Systems, 1QB Information Technologies,... - November 28th, 2020
- Is the blockchain vulnerable to hacking by quantum computers? - Moneyweb.co.za - November 28th, 2020
- Here's Why the Quantum World Is Just So Strange - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence - November 28th, 2020
- Cracking the Secrets of an Emerging Branch of Physics: Exotic Properties to Power Real-World Applications - SciTechDaily - November 28th, 2020
- Quantum Computing Market Detailed Analysis of Current and Future Industry Figures 2020-2026 | Leading Players StationQ- Microsoft, Google, 1QB... - November 16th, 2020
- Quantum Computing in the CloudCan It Live Up to the Hype? - Electronic Design - November 16th, 2020
- Supply Chain: The Quantum Computing Conundrum | Logistics - Supply Chain Digital - The Procurement & Supply Chain Platform - November 16th, 2020
- CCNY & partners in quantum algorithm breakthrough | The City College of New York - The City College of New York News - November 16th, 2020
- Hybrid cloud and quantum computing to shape IT: IBM chief - Nikkei Asian Review - November 16th, 2020
- NTTs Kazuhiro Gomi says Bio Digital Twin, quantum computing the next-gen tech - Backend News - November 16th, 2020
- A Scoville Heat Scale For Measuring The Progress Of Emerging Technologies In 2021 - Forbes - November 16th, 2020
- How quantum computing could drive the future auto industry - TechHQ - September 17th, 2020
- Spin-Based Quantum Computing Breakthrough: Physicists Achieve Tunable Spin Wave Excitation - SciTechDaily - September 17th, 2020
- 2025 will be the year of Quantum on the desktop - Fudzilla - September 17th, 2020
- Putting the Quantum in Security - Optics & Photonics News - September 17th, 2020
- NTT Research and University of Notre Dame Collaborate to Explore Continuous-Time Analog Computing - Quantaneo, the Quantum Computing Source - September 17th, 2020
- Assistant Professor in Computer Science job with Indiana University | 286449 - The Chronicle of Higher Education - September 17th, 2020
- EU leaders to ask European Commission to name areas of strategic weakness - Reuters - September 17th, 2020
- We Just Found Another Obstacle For Quantum Computers to Overcome - And It's Everywhere - ScienceAlert - September 2nd, 2020
- Quantum Computing Market Is Booming Worldwide | D-Wave Systems, 1QB Information Technologies, QxBranch LLC and more - The Daily Chronicle - September 2nd, 2020
- Tufts Joins Major Effort to Build the Next Generation of Quantum Computers - Tufts Now - September 2nd, 2020
- The Quantum Dream: Are We There Yet? - Toolbox - September 2nd, 2020
- Bipartisan Bill Calls for Government-Led Studies Into Emerging Tech Impacts - Nextgov - September 2nd, 2020
- Two Pune Research Institutes Are Building India's First Optical Atomic Clocks - The Wire Science - September 2nd, 2020
- Vitalik Buterin highlights major threats to Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH - Digital Market News - September 2nd, 2020
- What Is Quantum Supremacy And Quantum Computing? (And How Excited Should We Be?) - Forbes - August 23rd, 2020
- Has the world's most powerful computer arrived? - The National - August 23rd, 2020
- Will Quantum Computers Really Destroy Bitcoin? A Look at the Future of Crypto, According to Quantum Physicist Anastasia Marchenkova - The Daily Hodl - August 23rd, 2020
- This Week's Awesome Tech Stories From Around the Web (Through August 22) - Singularity Hub - August 23rd, 2020
- A Meta-Theory of Physics Could Explain Life, the Universe, Computation, and More - Gizmodo - August 23rd, 2020
- This Twist on Schrdinger's Cat Paradox Has Major Implications for Quantum Theory - Scientific American - August 23rd, 2020
- Scientists Have Shown There's No 'Butterfly Effect' in the Quantum World - VICE - August 23rd, 2020
- Quantum Information Processing Market 2020 | Know the Latest COVID19 Impact Analysis And Strategies of Key Players: 1QB Information Technologies,... - August 23rd, 2020
- Doctor Strange might want to trade his Time Stone for time crystals that are doing some otherworldly things - SYFY WIRE - August 23rd, 2020
- Trump betting millions to lay the groundwork for quantum internet in the US - CNBC - April 28th, 2020
- Announcing the IBM Quantum Challenge - Quantaneo, the Quantum Computing Source - April 28th, 2020
- Wiring the Quantum Computer of the Future: Researchers from Japan and Australia propose a novel 2D design - QS WOW News - April 28th, 2020
- Muquans and Pasqal partner to advance quantum computing - Quantaneo, the Quantum Computing Source - April 28th, 2020
- Deltec Bank, Bahamas - Quantum Computing Will bring Efficiency and Effectiveness and Cost Saving in Baking Sector - marketscreener.com - April 28th, 2020
- New way of developing topological superconductivity discovered - Chemie.de - April 28th, 2020
- Hot Qubits Could Deliver a Quantum Computing Breakthrough - Popular Mechanics - April 19th, 2020
- Quantum Computing With Particles Of Light: A $215 Million Gamble - Forbes - April 19th, 2020
- Quantum computing heats up down under as researchers reckon they know how to cut costs and improve stability - The Register - April 19th, 2020
- The future of quantum computing in the cloud - TechTarget - April 19th, 2020
- World coronavirus Dispatch: Quantum Computing Market Recent Trends and Developments, Challenges and Opportunities, key drivers and Restraints over the... - April 19th, 2020
- Quantum Computing Market 2020 Break Down by Top Companies, Applications, Challenges, Opportunities and Forecast 2026 Cole Reports - Cole of Duty - April 19th, 2020
- Science of Star Trek - The UCSB Current - April 19th, 2020
- Pentagon wants commercial, space-based quantum sensors within 2 years - The Sociable - April 19th, 2020