Ten Technologies To Watch In 2021 – Forbes
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 7:56 pm
Exponentials are often cited, oft explained, but seldom fathomed in full. Its just not how the human brain is trained to think, since most of the real world phenomena that matter to us are linear. We age linearly, skyscrapers go up roughly linearly, and the progress of many of our older technologiessuch as legacy carshas been linear. But as technologies are digitalized, they ride exponential curves of improvement. Take cars, for example. During their analog stage, mechanical steering and acceleration control technology barely changed over a hundred years. But now that cars are being digitalized, software-based autonomous driving capabilities have gone from speed-only cruise control to automated emergency breaks to automated distance maintenance, lane control, and autonomous parking, and now are at the cusp of self-driving. All within the span of 15 years.
The 2020s will be a decade when many exponential technologies will break out into mass use. The high rate of performance improvement, logarithmic reductions in price and faster rate of product releases will make prediction a difficult business. But for now, Ill take my chances and dive into what I think may be the most interesting technologies of 2021.
Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the last decade and is now attracting significant institutional funds. Hedge funds, multi-billion dollar corporations like MicroStrategy, and perhaps even Teslas Elon Musk are all investing in the cryptocurrency. What makes bitcoin so attractive is its low-cost, trustless, no-middle-man architecture combined with fast transaction settlements and hard limits on supply. With cryptocurrency market caps now hovering at roughly $1T, it is safe to say crypto has crossed the threshold and is implanted in the public consciousness as a real asset.
After all, we believe in the dollar not because a piece of paper is useful in and of itself, but because it represents a promise of value backed by the state. And why do we believe in the state? Ultimately, because it is an ideaa dreamshared by a large number of people. If a dollar is merely an idea that people collectively believe has value, then bitcoin is no different. It has evolved into a monetary network that now connects a very large number of people with shared belief in its value. And while the supply of fiat currencies continues to increase (25% of all USD currency in circulation was printed in the last year), the bitcoin pool forever remains limited to 21 million coins. While some fear regulation, I welcome it. Enforcing KYC (Know Your Customer) and AML (Anti Money Laundering) protections can help bitcoin by ending the fear, uncertainty and doubt once and for all. Lets see what 2021 holds, but I am long BTC! HODL!
Chinese aerospace developments are accelerating at a frenetic pace. China launched 29 satellites to the USs 27 during the first nine months of 2020. Their drone industry has grown by leaps and bounds. The Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has already operationalized its J-20 stealth fighter bomber aircraft, but the upcoming H-20 stealth bomber represents a particularly important evolution of Chinese air power and technological capacity. The aircraft was rumored to be a potential exhibit at the November 2020 Zhuhai airshow, but did not ultimately make an appearance. It is all but certain that the platform will be unveiled in 2021.
According to some reports, the H-20 stealth bomber bears a resemblance to the B2 and B21 flying wing designs and can carry a payload of anywhere from 20 to 45 tons. The latter figure is unlikely but even the former would be significant. Its own range combined with stand-off weapon systems would allow the aircraft to reach deep within North America. I dont believe the H-20 is a harbinger of conflict, but it does represent a significant qualitative evolution of Chinese aviation capability and a credible conventional strike platform that could alter strategic calculations over time.
Concept image of new generation bomber - Wikipedia
There are two schools of thought on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that took place earlier in 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The first group proposes that drones were effective in the conflict only because Armenia lacked a suitable air defense capability. The latter school of thought believes that it was the drones that neutralized Armenias otherwise modern defense capability and degraded their advantage to the point where Armenia was forced into capitulation and defeat.
While drones have been employed for decades, this conflict was different. Low-cost Turkish drones were combined with loitering munitions, electronic warfare and swarm strategies to wreak havoc on the Armenian military. An analysis of the conflict published in AirForces Monthly suggested that the result would not have been significantly different if the Turkish Azerbaijani onslaught was directed not at Armenia but at a European military instead. Not many armed forces would have been able to deal with the combined effect created by low-cost drones and swarm strategies. Expect a flurry of activity on this front in 2021 as air arms the world over recognize shortcomings, acquire low-cost drones and build new command, control and communications systems to enable swarm warfare. The Hyperwar thesis General Allen and I presented years ago is coming true in all its dimensions.
Will trains one day exceed the speed of most commercial aircraft? If tests that took place in South Korea late in 2020 are to be projected into the future, that is certainly the conclusion to which one arrives. The Korean Railroad Research Institute (KORAIL) announced that its Hyper-Tube train achieved a speed over 1,000 kph in tests conducted in December. Underground high-speed tunnels and so-called hyper loop technologies being developed both in the United States and in Asian countries such as China and South Korea promise to revolutionize rail transport. South Korea will continue high-speed rail tests in 2021 with the ultimate goal of reducing the three and a half hour long journey between Seoul and the southern part of the country to a mere 30 minutes. Urban mobility is attracting massive investments, whether in the form of The Line, a Saudi project that aims to build an optimally laid out city along a single 170 km long corridor; aerial urban mobility solutions; autonomous cars; and yes, high-speed hyper trains.
In the waning days of 2020, when prodded by self-driving company comma.AI, Elon Musk tweeted that he was highly confident Tesla would have level five, fully autonomous capabilities completed by the end of the year. Significant upgrades were made to Teslas self-driving software in the second half of 2020 and a flurry of YouTube videos appeared with many reviewers excitedly demonstrating the impressive new capabilities. What has been demonstrated thus far is far from level five, but well give Tesla the rest of this year to thrill us with their autonomy innovation. Of course, level five autonomy has been the holy grail thats been promised by the autonomous vehicle industry for several years. If Musks tweet is to be believed, it is finally within grasp. By his own admission, sometimes Musks claims take a bit longer to materialize, but he has a pretty good track record of delivering on promises. I, for one, cant wait to have my car drive me around!
metamorworks - shutterstock.com
Back in 2013 when I founded SparkCognition, many in the software industry doubted whether artificial intelligence would have much relevance to the tools and platforms they used. AI-powered code generation for any meaningful task seemed like the distant future. Beyond the software vertical, other industries were not quite sure whether artificial intelligence would deliver any real benefit. But six and a half years later, all of that has changed. Artificial intelligence represents one of the most profound shifts in digital technologies and now, most savvy executives and forward-thinking companies understand that AI adoption is not something to ignore or delay.
In 2021, the widespread use of AI will be spurred on at an even faster rate with broader availability of no-code AI application development tools. Applications like SparkCognitions DarwinTM product can help users build sophisticated deep-learning powered models without knowing anything at all about neural network design or programming. Individuals with knowledge of applications such as Microsoft Excel can trivially export data, train sophisticated machine learning algorithms and create applications very quickly. As the rate of model development accelerates with the use of such tools, an increasing percentage of enterprise workflows will be automated through high-performance neural networks, ultimately achieving a transition to what I have previously called the model-driven enterprise. This transition is coming in 2021.
Three dimensional volumetric displays have been a staple of science fiction for many years. Remember that scene in Star Wars where the rebel alliance is planning an attack on the Starkiller Base? The holographic projections into open space are an example of a volumetric display. But now, this technology is migrating from the world of science fiction into our real world. Australias Voxon Photonics is one example of a company that is working to commercialize volumetric display technology. The Voxon VX 1 is already up and running and can project up to 500 volumetric pixels or voxels. It is available for purchase today, but the $10,000 price prevents high-volume purchase, and hence, volume-driven cost reduction.
Volumetric displays represent the future evolution of workstation imaging technology, and as soon as these become practical they will be a preference for 3D designers, mechanical engineers and many other types of technical professionals.
immimagery - stock.adobe.com
Although 2020 was a difficult year, some good did come from it! For one, the FAA issued new guidelines around the use of drones operating in urban environments at night and over crowds. They also mandated remote ID broadcast technology for small unmanned aerial systems. While remote ID does post an additional reporting responsibility on the users of drones, the scope of drone operations can now be expanded considerably, driving useful applications at scale.
Companies like SkyGrid are developing platforms to enable the deployment, tracking, cybersecurity, maintenance and safe integration of drones into national airspace. SkyGrid even recently demonstrated the first test of an autonomous cybersecurity protection system on a drone. Between the FAAs new ID requirements and commercial developments in the field, such as improved cybersecurity, drone operations in urban areas can finally become more routine in 2021.
For many years quantum computing has been heralded as one of the most exciting and profound innovations in computer science. The computational power of a quantum computer can be thousands and even millions of times greater than a conventional computer. While not every computation that is possible to execute on a traditional, classical computer is doable on a quantum system, there are many exciting applications that quantum computers can enable almost immediately. One such area is cryptography, where traditionally secured cryptographic messages can be decoded in a small amount of time compared to a classical computer. This potential shortcoming of traditional cryptography has given rise to the field of quantum-safe cryptographic algorithms.
Another very exciting application of quantum computers is modeling chemical and biological processes. Quantum computers can simulate such phenomena much faster than a classical computer can. This gives them a massive advantage at predicting what molecular interactions will actually look like in the real world, leading to all sorts of valuable outcomes ranging from drug discovery to materials science. In fact, the potential of quantum computers to bring to life materials with never-before-seen properties may be their killer application.
IBM is likely to release a 127-qubit quantum computer in 2021, which would be the largest such system yet. Google may not be far behind. A vast array of smaller companies, such as IonQ, DWave and Rigetti are hard at work developing both hardware and software for the quantum stack. Expect new announcements from each of them through 2021.
5G cellular communications technology, when deployed at full capacity and scale, promises to revolutionize human-to-human communications by delivering smooth, high-resolution video, low-latency near-life like video conferencing and VR-capable gaming. But 5G is about more than human-to-human communications. It also holds the potential to enable reliable, low-latency control of physical semi-autonomous systems such as cars, trucks and urban aerial mobility drones; the machine-to-machine network!
5Gs theoretical maximum data rate is 20 GBps and, on average, the spec can deliver 100+ Mbps consistently. However, most implementations of 5G in the US can only deliver 35-50 Mbps average speeds. And while we hear a lot about 5G in the press, as of 2020, some of the largest US carriers had only extended 5G capability to one percent of their network.
This might change in 2021. Expect significant expansion of the 5G footprint and a much greater penetration of 5G-capable phones. The new Apple iPhone released in September 2020 now natively supports 5G. As it is inevitably adopted, a large percentage of US smartphones will be 5G-ready. The additional volume of users will also encourage software and services developers to begin incorporating 5G-enabled features, from better video quality and higher frame rates to new modes of interaction.
Undoubtedly, many of the most exciting developments in 2021 will be in areas we havent focused on in this article; the surprise exponential technologies can generate is tremendous. As time marches on, the exponential curve leaps higher and higher and the surprise it creates increases too! Will we see significant advances on AI algorithms and learning capabilities? Will we make advancements in general purpose learning? Explainability? A fusion of symbolic and connectionist approaches to enable more robust and transparent AI? The answers to all of these is quite likely, yes, yes, yes and yes. Just what these enhancements will be and how profound their effects are remains to be seen. Whats for sure, though, is that 2021 is going to be an action-packed year full of technological innovation and advancement!
Read more from the original source:
Ten Technologies To Watch In 2021 - Forbes
- Newly Invented Device Controls Thousands of Qubits - Unite.AI - February 9th, 2021
- Universities are Building the Future of Quantum Internet - EdTech Magazine: Focus on Higher Education - February 9th, 2021
- A Swiss company claims it used quantum computers to find weakness in encryption - HT Tech - February 9th, 2021
- Microsoft Scientists Build Chip That Can Handle Thousands Of Qubits - Analytics India Magazine - February 9th, 2021
- The draft bill of the 17th Amendment Ordinance of the AWV (Foreign Trade and Payments Ordinance) - a first analysis - Lexology - February 9th, 2021
- BMW takes first steps into the quantum computing revolution - CNET - January 29th, 2021
- IBMs top executive says, quantum computers will never reign supreme over classical ones - The Hindu - January 29th, 2021
- A fridge thats colder than outer space could take quantum computing to new heights - TechRadar - January 29th, 2021
- article image Caltech and NTT developing the world's fastest quantum computer - Digital Journal - January 29th, 2021
- A Quantum Leap Is Coming: Ones, Zeros And Everything In Between - Transmission & Distribution World - January 29th, 2021
- The Convergence of Internet of Things and Quantum Computing - BBN Times - January 29th, 2021
- NTT Research Collaboration with Caltech to Develop World's Fastest Coherent Ising Machine - HPCwire - January 29th, 2021
- Analysis: Opportunities and Restraint of the Quantum Computing Market KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper - KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper - January 29th, 2021
- Light-Induced Twisting of Weyl Nodes Switches on Giant Electron Current Useful for Spintronics and Quantum Computing - SciTechDaily - January 29th, 2021
- Physicists Study How Our Universe Might Have Bubbled Up in the Multiverse - Quanta Magazine - January 29th, 2021
- IBM, Apple and Accenture join MIT cross-industry climate change-tackling consortium - ComputerWeekly.com - January 29th, 2021
- Worldwide High Performance Computing Industry to 2026 - The Market is Driven Largely by Simulations, Engineering and Design Solutions - PRNewswire - January 29th, 2021
- Biden needs an innovation agenda - Milford Daily News - January 29th, 2021
- 3 tech trends that COVID-19 will accelerate in 2021 - VentureBeat - January 29th, 2021
- Beam me up: long-distance quantum teleportation has happened for the first time ever - SYFY WIRE - December 26th, 2020
- Quanta's Year in Math and Computer Science (2020) - Quanta Magazine - December 26th, 2020
- What the Hell Is Quantum Chess? | IE - Interesting Engineering - December 26th, 2020
- The Interview Issue: Eisgruber is trying to reshape the meaning of a Princeton education even as his school, and higher ed as a whole, grapples with... - December 26th, 2020
- Satoshis Bitcoin Fortune Will Be Easiest Batch for Quantum Computers to Hack, Says Andreas Antonopoulos - The Daily Hodl - December 26th, 2020
- Europe Is on Its Way To Quantum Leadership, IQM Raises 39 M in Series A Funding - Embedded Computing Design - November 30th, 2020
- How Scientists Have Learned To Work With the Quantum World - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence - November 30th, 2020
- Archer Materials makes strong progress in shifting focus to Advanced Materials Business and technology - Proactive Investors USA & Canada - November 30th, 2020
- 01 Communique to Present at the Benzinga Global Small Cap Conference on December 8 - IT News Online - November 30th, 2020
- What is Quantum Computing, and How does it Help Us? - Analytics Insight - October 11th, 2020
- 4 Reasons Why Now Is the Best Time to Start With Quantum Computing - Medium - October 11th, 2020
- Race for quantum supremacy gathers momentum with several companies joining bandwagon, says GlobalData - Quantaneo, the Quantum Computing Source - October 11th, 2020
- Quantum computing: Photon startup lights up the future of computers and cryptography - ZDNet - October 8th, 2020
- Canadian quantum computing firms partner to spread the technology - IT World Canada - October 8th, 2020
- Google's Billion Dollar News, Commercial Quantum Computers And More In This Week's Top News - Analytics India Magazine - October 8th, 2020
- SC20 Invited Speakers Tackle Challenges for the Earth, Its Inhabitants, and Our Security Using 'More Than HPC' - HPCwire - October 8th, 2020
- A new claimant for "most powerful quantum computer" - Axios - October 3rd, 2020
- ESAs -Week: Digital Twin Earth, Quantum Computing and AI Take Center Stage - SciTechDaily - October 3rd, 2020
- Schrdingers Web offers a sneak peek at the quantum internet - Science News - October 3rd, 2020
- Global QC Market Projected to Grow to More Than $800 million by 2024 - HPCwire - October 3rd, 2020
- Berkeley Lab Technologies Honored With 7 R&D 100 Awards - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - October 3rd, 2020
- oneAPI Academic Center of Excellence Established at the Heidelberg University Computing Center (URZ) - HPCwire - October 3rd, 2020
- Baidu offers quantum computing from the cloud - VentureBeat - September 26th, 2020
- IBM Partners With HBCUs to Diversify Quantum Computing Workforce - Diverse: Issues in Higher Education - September 26th, 2020
- IBM, Alphabet and well-funded startups in the race for quantum supremacy - IT Brief Australia - September 26th, 2020
- IBM plans to build a 1121 qubit system. What does this technology mean? - The Hindu - September 26th, 2020
- Inaugural OSA Quantum 2.0 Conference Featured Talks on Emerging Technologies - Novus Light Technologies Today - September 26th, 2020
- Could Quantum Computing Progress Be Halted by Background Radiation? - Singularity Hub - September 1st, 2020
- Fermilab to lead $115 million National Quantum Information Science Research Center to build revolutionary quantum computer with Rigetti Computing,... - September 1st, 2020
- The future of artificial intelligence and quantum computing - Military & Aerospace Electronics - September 1st, 2020
- Researchers Found Another Impediment for Quantum Computers to Overcome - Dual Dove - September 1st, 2020
- Quantum Cryptography Market Research Analysis Including Growth Factors, Types And Application By Regions From 2024 - Kentucky Journal 24 - September 1st, 2020
- Q-NEXT collaboration awarded National Quantum Initiative funding - University of Wisconsin-Madison - September 1st, 2020
- This Equation Calculates The Chances We Live In A Computer Simulation - Discover Magazine - September 1st, 2020
- I confess, I'm scared of the next generation of supercomputers - TechRadar - September 1st, 2020
- Honeywell Wants To Show What Quantum Computing Can Do For The World - Forbes - August 14th, 2020
- Quantum Computing for the Next Generation of Computer Scientists and Researchers - Campus Technology - August 14th, 2020
- Quantum mechanics is immune to the butterfly effect - The Economist - August 14th, 2020
- Major quantum computational breakthrough is shaking up physics and maths - The Conversation UK - August 14th, 2020
- IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering (QCE20) Transitions to All-Virtual Event - PRNewswire - August 14th, 2020
- 6 new degrees approved, including graduate degrees in biostatistics and quantum information science: News at IU - IU Newsroom - August 14th, 2020
- The race to building a fully functional quantum stack - TechCrunch - August 14th, 2020
- Toshiba Exits PC Business 35 Years of IBM Compatible PCs - Electropages - August 14th, 2020
- IBM Z mainframes revived by Red Hat, AI and security - TechTarget - August 14th, 2020
- Quantum computing will (eventually) help us discover vaccines in days - VentureBeat - May 17th, 2020
- Quantum computing analytics: Put this on your IT roadmap - TechRepublic - May 17th, 2020
- Video: The Future of Quantum Computing with IBM - insideHPC - May 17th, 2020
- Registration Open for Inaugural IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering - HPCwire - May 17th, 2020
- Light, fantastic: the path ahead for faster, smaller computer processors - News - The University of Sydney - May 17th, 2020
- VTT to acquire Finland's first quantum computer seeking to bolster Finland's and Europe's competitiveness - Quantaneo, the Quantum Computing Source - May 12th, 2020
- IonQ CEO Peter Chapman on how quantum computing will change the future of AI - VentureBeat - May 12th, 2020
- David Graves to Head New Research at PPPL for Plasma Applications in Industry and Quantum Information Science - HPCwire - May 12th, 2020
- Recent Research Answers the Future of Quantum Machine Learning on COVID-19 - Analytics Insight - May 12th, 2020
- Kerry Emanuel, David Sabatini, and Peter Shor receive BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge awards - MIT News - May 12th, 2020
- Between God and Science in the Surreal Silicon Valley of Devs - The Nation - May 12th, 2020
- Online course trains students in the bizarre world of quantum computing - Livescience.com - May 2nd, 2020
- Devs: Here's the real science behind the quantum computing TV show - New Scientist News - May 2nd, 2020
- New Princeton study takes superconductivity to the edge - Princeton University - May 2nd, 2020
- Quantum computer chips demonstrated at the highest temperatures ever - New Scientist News - April 16th, 2020
- Calling On AI And Quantum Computing To Fight The Coronavirus - Forbes - April 16th, 2020
- COVID-19: Quantum computing could someday find cures for coronaviruses and other diseases - TechRepublic - April 16th, 2020