RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces One-third Reduction in Distributions to Unitholders – GlobeNewswire
Posted: December 5, 2020 at 7:56 pm
December 03, 2020 17:01 ET | Source: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust
TORONTO, Dec. 03, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (RioCan or the Trust) (TSX: REI.UN) announced a reduction of RioCans monthly distribution to unitholders from $0.12 per unit to $0.08 per unit, or from $1.44 to $0.96 on an annualized basis. RioCans Board of Trustees has determined the reduction is appropriate given ongoing uncertainty as a result of the pandemic. This decrease will be effective for the Trusts January 2021 distribution, payable in February 2021.
As RioCan continues to navigate through the uncertain retail landscape created by the COVID-19 pandemic and faces an unknown length and breadth of closures, the Board has taken the prudent action of reducing our distribution. A more conservative payout ratio is important in this undeniably challenging environment despite our well positioned portfolio, solid base of tenants and deep liquidity, said Edward Sonshine, Chief Executive Officer of RioCan. At the same time, we believe the current circumstances present an opportunity for us to optimize our capital allocation towards accretive initiatives as we remain committed to driving value creation for our unitholders and increasing distributions from this new base as conditions permit.
This one-third distribution reduction will provide RioCan additional cash flow of approximately $152 million annually. The additional capital will be used to fund initiatives that drive long-term net asset value growth for RioCans unitholders such as its mixed-use residential developments, unit buybacks through its normal course issuer bid program, and debt repayment.
RioCans Board of Trustees will reevaluate the distribution on a regular basis, taking into account various factors including, but not limited to, market stabilization as the health crisis dissipates, cash flow and leverage.
About RioCan RioCan is one of Canadas largest real estate investment trusts. RioCan owns, manages and develops retail-focused, increasingly mixed-use properties located in prime, high-density transit-oriented areas where Canadians want to shop, live and work. As at September 30, 2020, our portfolio is comprised of 221 properties with an aggregate net leasable area of approximately 38.4 million square feet (at RioCan's interest) including office, residential rental and 16 development properties. To learn more about us, please visit http://www.riocan.com.
Forward Looking Information This News Release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. This information reflects RioCans objectives, our strategies to achieve those objectives, as well as statements with respect to managements beliefs, estimates and intentions concerning anticipated future events or expectations that are not historical facts. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as outlook, objective, may, will, would, expect, intend, estimate, anticipate, believe, should, plan, continue, or similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events.
Such forward-looking information reflects managements current beliefs and is based on information currently available to management. All forward-looking information in this News Release is qualified by these cautionary statements.
Forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future events or performance and, by its nature, is based on RioCans current estimates and assumptions, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including those described in the Risks and Uncertainties section in RioCan's MD&A for the period ended September 30, 2020 and in our most recent Annual Information Form, which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the forward-looking information contained in this News Release.
Although the forward-looking information contained in this News Release is based upon what management believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that actual results will be consistent with this forward-looking information.
The forward-looking statements contained in this News Release are made as of the date hereof, and should not be relied upon as representing RioCans views as of any date subsequent to the date of this News Release. Management undertakes no obligation, except as required by applicable law, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust Announces One-third Reduction in Distributions to Unitholders - GlobeNewswire
A beginners guide to value investing everything you need to know – CNBC
Posted: at 7:56 pm
So-called "value" stocks have soared recently and are expected to continue to rise, but experts say there are some key factors to consider before investing.
First, what are value stocks and what does value investing mean?
Teodor Dilov, fund analyst at U.K. investment platform Interactive Investor, said that value investing is, "all about investing in stocks that have been underappreciated by the market in the belief that their intrinsic value will shine through and translate to impressive returns in the long-term."
There are a number of reasons why a stock could be considered undervalued. It could be that the sector a company belongs to is suffering from the effect of an economic downturn, for example, or that it operates in an industry that is considered to be outdated.
Because of this, many value stocks often belong to what are known as "cyclical" industries, meaning their performance is linked to the strength of the economy.
In the case of the coronavirus, the shutdown of many aspects of public life in an attempt to curb the pandemic hurt the stock markets of those countries worst affected, such as those in Europe. It also hit the share prices of certain industries directly affected by the restrictions, such as tourism and hospitality.
However, recent announcements about effective Covid-19 vaccines have signaled that economies could re-open fully, and businesses may soon go back to operating as normal. This has caused many of those stock markets and industries hammered by the crisis to rebound and value stocks linked to these sectors have also benefitted.
The MSCI World Value index has risen more than 10% since the first announcement of an effective vaccine by Pfizer and BioNTech in early November, according to Refintiv data. It's outperformed the MSCI World Growth index, which has risen by around 2.5% and tracks so-called "growth stocks."
Growth stocks, judged by investors to have strong future earnings potential, are often pitted against value stocks. During the pandemic-induced market downturn, growth stocks like the U.S. tech giants staged a massive rally but have since come off highs.
Now attention is turning to value investing, and some analysts think these stocks will go even higher next year.
But given that this style of investing means betting on out-of-favor companies, it requires investors to be "brave and patient," Russ Mould, investment director at U.K. stockbroker AJ Bell, told CNBC via email.
He referred to a quote from legendary financial writer, Jim Grant:"Successful investing is about having people agree with you later."
So how do you know that you're investing in markets or stocks now that will grow your money later on?
There are many ways investors can assess whether a stock is undervalued.
One way is to look at the stock's "price-earnings ratio," which is its share price divided by its earnings per share. The EPS is worked out by dividing the company's net profit (income minus expenses) by the number of shares it has outstanding. This can help investors tell whether or not a company is expensive in comparison to its peers in the same sector, for example.
Adrian Lowcock, head of personal investing at U.K. investment platform Willis Owen, told CNBC on a phone call that this is a, "very quick way, and easy way, to work out whether a company's value is below or above that of the market, as an average."
The "price-book ratio" is another tool investors use. It compares how a company is valued by the market to how it is valued based on its accounts. It is calculated by dividing a company's share price by its "book value" the value of all of its assets minus any liabilities per share.
Lowcock referred to advice by Benjamin Graham, who was mentor to Warren Buffet and is considered the "father of value investing." When it comes to price-book ratios, one of Graham's 10 rules for selecting a stock is that its market value is below two-thirds of the book value of the business.
Dividend yield, which is income paid out by a company as a percentage of its share price, can be another indicator of value. It is calculated by dividing the company's annual dividend by the current share price. The dividend yield therefore moves in the opposite direction to a company's shares, so a lower stock price would send the yield up and vice versa.
While a high yield can mean a higher income, it may also indicate that further investigation into a stock is needed before investing, according to Lowcock. He said it can indicate that the yield is unsustainable, depending on the reason behind a share price fall. It could just be that shares have been dragged down by a wider market fall, "or it could be a sign of something more serious."
Given that dividend yield isn't as straightforward to interpret, Lowcock said understanding it as an indicator of value is probably less relevant for a beginner investor.
Gauging whether a stock is undervalued is one thing, but investors also need to look for signs of a catalyst that could potentially turn around a company's fortunes in the future and send its share price higher.
"Without something happening that changes market perception of the stock, it could stay cheap or simply get cheaper," said AJ Bell's Mould.
A change of company strategy or new management are a couple of examples he highlighted.
"Looking for potential triggers also helps you spot whether a stock is value trap a cheap stock that deserved to be cheap and one that could therefore see its shares and market cap keep falling," he added.
Even armed with the basics, however, Interactive Investor's Dilov said value investing "can be quite confusing," so he recommended investing in this style via funds, which are managed by professional stock pickers.
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A beginners guide to value investing everything you need to know - CNBC
Startup Spotlight: Investment deal flow to startups dropped during early stages of pandemic, but is now recovering, report finds – Richmond.com
Posted: at 7:55 pm
ARtGlass completing a new round of investments amounting to about $500,000. The company developed software that can be be installed in wearable devices and enable historic sites, museums and other cultural sites to offer visitors specially-designed, transparent smartglasses that they can wear during tours. The glasses superimpose three-dimensional images or text on a landscape or objects.
More than 50 nonprofits applied to participate in the Grow@1717 program at the 1717 Innovation Center in Shockoe Bottom.
Investments in startup businesses in the Southeastern U.S. dropped off during the spring because of the COVID-19 crisis but have show signs of recovery in the second half of the year, a new report has found.
The report by BIP Capital, an Atlanta-based venture capital firm, also found that investors have become more focused on deploying larger checks into a smaller number of deals, in part because the global pandemic has pushed investors toward more mature companies that are perceived to be lower-risk bets.
There was this massive shock to the overall system, and everybody locked in during March, April and May, said Mark Flickinger, chief operating officer of BIP Capital.
In June, you could see the amount of dollars being invested coming back, he said.
Everything stopped, early in the pandemic, he said. Then people realized we are going to have to continue to figure out how to move forward.
The total amount invested in startups in the nine states, including Virginia, that the report tracked amounted to about $3.3 billion for the first half of 2020, compared with about $9.2 billion for the whole year of 2019, which was the largest amount invested in one year since BIP Capital started doing its study in 2015.
In Virginia, investors deployed about $524 million in the first half of 2020, compared with a total of about $1.4 billion for all of 2019, which was the best year for Virginia since BIP started the annual study.
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Startup Spotlight: Investment deal flow to startups dropped during early stages of pandemic, but is now recovering, report finds - Richmond.com
3 ways buying an investment property is different from buying a home, according to a landlord who knows – Business Insider
Posted: at 7:55 pm
Investing in real estate to build wealth is generally much different from buying a home to live in yourself. From the process of financing and buying a property to maintaining it, being a landlord is a job.
While it's often more difficult than buying a home to live in, it also has a unique set of rewards. Ogechi Igbokwe, a real estate investor and landlord who owns nine properties, says there are several things that distinguish owning an investment property from owning a home.
The process of borrowing money to buy a rental property is different from that of buying a home.
"You have to make sure that you have a good credit score," Igbokwe says. This isn't so different from buying a home anyone applying for a mortgage will see their interest rate fluctuate with their credit score but the range of interest rates for investors is higher. Investors often see mortgage interest rates between .5% and .75% higher than the typical homeowner, according to data from The Mortgage Reports.
"Second of all, you're required to put more money down," Igbokwe says. When she bought her third property in 2017, she was required to put 25% down. That's more than the 20% typically suggested of homeowners, with some programs allowing smaller down payments.
Anyone who's considering buying a home should know their debt-to-income ratio, which measures your debt including mortgages, student loans, and credit card debt to your income. Conventional loans require a DTI ratio below 36%, but can be as high as 50%, depending on your financial situation.
But for investors, "your debt-to-income ratio is especially crucial, especially if this is your first rental property," Igbokwe says. "The purpose of buying real estate investments is to make profits, so hopefully your properties bring cash flow. But for your first rental and second rental, it's especially crucial that you don't have a lot of personal debt," she continues. Having that debt without the accordant income from your properties will increase your DTI, making it harder to borrow money.
Lastly, banks will also require an emergency fund: a cash reserve that you won't be using for this purchase. While it's suggested for a typical borrower, too, it's more important for a landlord, Igbokwe says. In her experience, banks want to see three to six months' worth of expenses. "They want to see that you have something left," she says. "They want to feel comfortable knowing that you can afford to make the mortgage payments if it doesn't work out with tenants."
When you buy a home for yourself, it's not a business it's simply where you live. But as a real estate investor and a landlord, a home will essentially become a business.
Especially when working with tenants, you're essentially running a customer service-oriented busines. You have to work with people, know the rules, and know how to handle working with different personalities. "It is a people management position when you're dealing with tenants," landlord Becky Nova previously told Business Insider.
In Igbokwe's experience, it can be easy to slip out of that business mindset with renters. But, she says it's critical to keeping your business running smoothly. "One of my personal experiences was transferring the trust that I had [in one tenant] to someone else that tenant referred," she says. She took her previous renter's suggestion, letting that new tenant move in. But, a few months later, the new tenant stopped paying the rent.
To her, it was a lesson that in business, you can't let your guard down. "Have your criteria, and make sure you screen your tenants," she says.
When you're buying a home, as an investment or not, people say that it's important to keep your emotions at bay. But, when you're buying a rental property, you need to keep your emotions almost entirely out of it, Igbokwe says.
"People get too attached. You're not supposed to be attached to anything in a building. Take your emotions out of it," she suggests.
Getting too attached can lead to overpaying for a property, or missing out on a better deal. "You have to be able to evaluate a building, analyze it, and determine if it's going to be profitable or not," Igbokwe says. "If the numbers don't work, you must walk away. There will always be other deals."
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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Reminds Shareholders with Losses on their Investment in Wells Fargo & Company of Class Action Lawsuit and…
Posted: at 7:55 pm
NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / December 5, 2020 / Pomerantz LLP announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed against Wells Fargo & Company ("Wells Fargo" or the "Company") (NYSE:WFC) and certain of its officers. The class action, filed in United States District Court for the Northern District of California and docketed under 20-cv-07997, is on behalf of a class consisting of all persons other than Defendants who purchased or otherwise acquired Wells Fargo securities between October 13, 2017 and October 13, 2020, inclusive (the "Class Period"). Plaintiff seeks to pursue remedies against Wells Fargo and certain of the Company's current and former senior executives under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder.
If you are a shareholder who purchased Wells Fargo securities during the Class Period, you have until December 29, 2020, to ask the Court to appoint you as Lead Plaintiff for the class. A copy of the Complaint can be obtained at http://www.pomerantzlaw.com. To discuss this action, contact Robert S. Willoughby at newaction@pomlaw.com or 888.476.6529 (or 888.4-POMLAW), toll-free, Ext. 7980. Those who inquire by e-mail are encouraged to include their mailing address, telephone number, and the number of shares purchased.
[Click here for information about joining the class action]
Wells Fargo is a global financial services company headquartered in San Francisco, California. The Company provides banking, investment and mortgage products and services, as well as other consumer and commercial financial services. It is one of the largest banks in the world as measured by both market capitalization and total assets.
The complaint alleges that throughout the Class Period, Defendants made materially false and misleading statements regarding the Company's business, operational and compliance policies. Specifically, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (i) Wells Fargo had systematically failed to follow appropriate underwriting standards and due diligence guidelines in issuing billions of dollars' worth of commercial loans, including by inflating the net income and future expected cash flows of its commercial clients to justify issuing excessive loan amounts; (ii) a materially higher proportion of Wells Fargo's commercial loan customers were of poor credit quality and/or at a substantially higher risk of default than disclosed to investors; (iii) Wells Fargo had failed to timely write down commercial loans, collateralized loan obligations ("CLOs") and commercial mortgage backed securities ("CMBS") on its books that had suffered impairments; (iv) Wells Fargo had materially understated the reserves needed for expected credit losses in its commercial portfolios; (v) Wells Fargo had systematically misrepresented the credit quality and likelihood of default of the loans it packaged and securitized into CLOs and CMBS, including by artificially inflating the net income and expected cash flows of its commercial clients in loan and securitization documentation; (vi) the CLO and CMBS-related loans issued and investment securities held by Wells Fargo were of lower credit quality and worth far less than represented to investors; (vii) as a result of (i)-(vi) above, Wells Fargo's Class Period statements regarding the credit quality of its commercial loans, its underwriting and due diligence practices, and the value of its CLO and CMBS books were materially false and misleading; and (viii) as a result of all the foregoing, Wells Fargo was exposed to severe undisclosed risks of financial, reputational and legal harm, in particular in the event of significant and sustained stress in the commercial credit markets.
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On April 14, 2020, Wells Fargo issued a press release providing its results for the first quarter of 2020. The release revealed a stunning deterioration in the Company's credit portfolio, particularly with respect to its commercial loans.
On this news, Wells Fargo's stock price fell 14% over the following three trading sessions, closing at $26.89 per share on April 16, 2020.
Then, on May 5, 2020, Wells Fargo filed its quarterly report for the first quarter with the SEC, which stated that the fair value of the Company's CLO investments held-for-sale had fallen to $26.9 billion by the quarter's end, a 9% decline from the end of the quarter and year ended December 31, 2019 ("FY19"), and that Wells Fargo had suffered $1.7 billion in unrealized losses on its CLO investments during the quarter.
On this news, Wells Fargo's stock price fell another 6% over two trading days to close at $25.61 per share on May 6, 2020.
Then, on June 10, 2020, Wells Fargo's Chief Financial Officer John Shrewsberry ("Shrewsberry") presented at the Morgan Stanley Virtual US Financials Conference. During the conference, Shrewsberry revealed that Wells Fargo's second quarter reserve build would be even "bigger than the first quarter" as a result of continued deterioration in the Company's credit portfolio.
On this news, Wells Fargo's stock price fell 18% over two trading days to close at $26.79 per share on June 11, 2020.
On July 14, 2020, Wells Fargo issued a release providing its results for the second quarter of 2020. The release stated that Wells Fargo had suffered a $2.4 billion loss during the quarter, or ($0.66) per share, largely as a result of deterioration in its commercial credit portfolio.
On this news, Wells Fargo's stock price fell another 5% to close at $24.25 per share on July 14, 2020.
Finally, on October 14, 2020, Wells Fargo issued a release providing its results for the third quarter of 2020. The release stated that Wells Fargo had recognized another provision expense of $769 million and that non-accrual loans had increased $2.5 billion, or 45%, to $8 billion during the quarter.
On this news, Wells Fargo's stock price fell another 6% to close at $23.25 per share on October 14, 2020.
The Pomerantz Firm, with offices in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Paris is acknowledged as one of the premier firms in the areas of corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation. Founded by the late Abraham L. Pomerantz, known as the dean of the class action bar, the Pomerantz Firm pioneered the field of securities class actions. Today, more than 80 years later, the Pomerantz Firm continues in the tradition he established, fighting for the rights of the victims of securities fraud, breaches of fiduciary duty, and corporate misconduct. The Firm has recovered numerous multimillion-dollar damages awards on behalf of class members. See http://www.pomerantzlaw.com.
SOURCE: Pomerantz LLP
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SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Reminds Shareholders with Losses on their Investment in Wells Fargo & Company of Class Action Lawsuit and...
About 150 Cadillac dealers take GM buyouts rather than invest in EVs – CNBC
Posted: at 7:55 pm
General Motors released this teaser image of an illuminated Cadillac crest on the front of the Lyriq ahead of the crossover's debut.
GM
DETROIT About 150 General Motors dealers have accepted buyouts and will stop selling Cadillacs as the Detroit automaker pivots the luxury brand to lead its all-electric vehicle efforts, a person familiar with the details confirmed to CNBC.
GM recently told its 880 U.S. Cadillac dealers that in order to sell its upcoming EVs it would cost at least $200,000 to upgrade dealerships. The cost includes EV chargers, tooling and training. Such capital expenditures are typically viewed as part of business for larger dealers, but could be challenging for smaller dealers, which Cadillac has more of throughout the country compared with other luxury brands.
The buyouts mark the most recent indication of GM accelerating its EV efforts, which include investing $27 billion in all-electric and autonomous vehicles by 2025. That investment, an increase from $20 billion announced earlier this year, is expected to produce 30 new EVs globally by 2025, including more than 20 just for North America.
"This forward product offering needs to be combined with exceptional customer experience," GM said in an emailed statement. "The future dealer requirements are a logical and necessary next step on our path towards electrification to ensure our dealers are prepared to provide customers an exceptional experience."
GM expects a majority, if not all, of its Cadillac cars and SUVs sold globally to be all-electric vehicles by 2030.
David Butler, chairman of Cadillac's national dealer council, said the leadership board suggested the buyouts as a way for dealers who may not want to participate in the EV investment a way out of their agreements with GM.
"We suggested the offer be something worthwhile for the dealers," he told CNBC, citing a previous buyout from 2016 that failed to attract many Cadillac dealers.
The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the number of dealers taking the buyouts Friday, said GM's buyout offers ranged from around $300,000 to more than $1 million. Buyouts were based largely on sales and varied depending on the size of the dealership, according to the company.
The roughly 150 dealers accepting the buyouts represent about 17% of Cadillac's U.S. dealerships. Dealers had until Nov. 30 to decide on a buyout, according to Automotive News, which first reported the offers last week.
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COVID-19 Update: Vaccines, Treatments And Lockdowns, Investment Implications – Seeking Alpha
Posted: at 7:55 pm
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With a lot happening in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems worthwhile to review the current status. Vaccines are a hot topic and rollout is imminent. There is investment interest, especially in relation to BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA). Progress with treatments is less encouraging and the outlook for Gileads (NASDAQ:GILD) remdesivir is less promising. An emerging story is an increasingly tough winter for the COVID-19 pandemic in the northern hemisphere; vaccine developments are going to have little impact on this evolving crisis. Later next year things might improve, but beware of market correction if the pandemic isnt seriously addressed through government support.
The soap opera continues with a very recent announcement that the UK government has authorized the Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech COVID vaccine for emergency use on the recommendation of the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Thus, the UK is the first country to authorise the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. No doubt this caused concern in the US with a meeting between the President and FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn to address why the FDA has not yet approved the Pfizer vaccine. It is important to understand that moving at this speed has risks attached to it. Vaccines normally have a much deeper risk profile established before general release. Dr. Fauci has recently indicated that his view is that the UK rushed approval and this could put at risk public acceptance of vaccination, which is crucial. He has now apologised if his comment suggested that the UK was being sloppy.
There has been further clarification about the speed of approval from the UK in comparison with the US. Brexit has given the UK flexibility to make its own decisions outside of EU approvals. The FDA uses a more rigorous review of data as it goes back to the raw figures. This normally takes months, but in this case, FDA approval is expected very soon, with a meeting on 10 December scheduled; the EU will probably review its attitude on 29 December. The UK expects to receive very soon 10 million doses (enough for 5 million vaccinations) of its 40 million dose order. The early recipients will be healthcare workers, aged care residents, the elderly and clinically vulnerable.
Away from the politics, there is a still a lot to be sorted out with the vaccine candidates.
While the AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN)/Oxford University vaccine has been a front runner, this situation changed when there was some controversy about its effectiveness and the best dosing for the first injection. This caused some indignation about how AstraZeneca has dealt with the vaccine, including a mistake in dosing that has given insight into what could become a more effective vaccine. This is just a pretty normal part of the discovery phase of a vaccine development. People make mistakes and sometimes these mistakes are revealing. This is why it takes a long time.
The AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine is attractive because it is cheaper to produce than the new generation mRNA-based vaccines, and the vaccine can be stored and shipped at refrigeration temperatures, as opposed to mRNA vaccines requiring freezing at -20C (Moderna) or -78C (Pfizer/BioNTech). Messenger RNA is unstable and easily degraded, which is why freezing temperatures are needed. The Moderna vaccine has the mRNA stabilised in fatty nanoparticles and this is the reason it just requires a normal freezer and not to be shipped on dry ice (-78C) as is needed for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
There is some evidence that the AstraZeneca vaccine might be particularly effective in the elderly.
Notwithstanding some controversy surrounding exactly what is going on with the AstraZeneca/Oxford Uni vaccine, there is evidence that an early requirement for an effective and safe vaccine has been met with the mRNA vaccines, which are now the most advanced in the path to release.
As mentioned above, the UK government is out of the blocks with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The UK government is feeling the pressure with a recent surge in cases and the death toll now above 60,000 deaths (and daily death toll of ~500). UK PM Boris Johnson is acknowledging a hard winter ahead before there will be a noticeable effect even of a highly successful vaccine release. The US will surely follow quickly with conditional approval for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Europe seems to be indicating that it will not rush the decision, but no doubt approval will not be delayed for long. Australia has signalled its acceptance of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which is expected to become available in Australia at the end of Q1 2021.
The pressure must be immense. It was interesting to read a report from Dr. Moncef Slaoui, President Trumps leader of Operation Warp Speed. Dr. Slaoui indicates that 10-15% of volunteers receiving the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine experience significantly noticeable side effects which can last up to 1.5 days. The side effects include fever, chills, muscle aches and headaches. There are some concerns that even these mild effects might be enough to dissuade people from returning for the second (essential) dose of the vaccine. These physicians indicate that patients should be aware that they might experience symptoms like a mild case of COVID-19.
So far, more important adverse events (e.g. autoimmune symptoms) are not significantly more common in treated versus control patients.
But this isnt the end of it. Dr. Slaoui made clear that long-term safety is not understood at all because by definition there hasnt been time to evaluate this aspect.
At this stage, BioNTech seems to be the best opportunity for investors to benefit from the vaccine developments, although Moderna might come into the picture soon. BioNTech as the inventor of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and with a major partner to manufacture and distribute, is positioned to benefit in the short term, notwithstanding its share price already up 39% in the past month (and 454% year on year). Pfizer is up 12.6% in the past month, but its share price appears to be flattening. Sarel Oberholster has recently given the bullish case for BioNTech and this analysis preceded the UK approval.
The case for the Moderna vaccine seems similar to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and Modernas share performance is even more bullish than that of BioNTech. Moderna is up 113% in the past month and 624% year on year. If it gets approval soon, expect a further share price increase. Moderna has recently sought emergency approval from the FDA and its case will be considered by the EU on 12 January.
Perhaps the biggest issue for the competitive position of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is the need for -78C (dry ice) storage. While the AstraZeneca/Oxford University vaccine has some short-term hassles necessitating a further trial, its easier storage could make it more competitive in the longer term (assuming little difference in effectiveness and safety, although it is early days to have views on this). The Moderna vaccine is in the middle because it requires frozen storage, but at normal freezer temperature.
The bottom line for the vaccine developments is to understand that the huge number of shortcuts and absence of review before proceeding to the next step means that the COVID-19 vaccine developments maximise risk of something going wrong. It is too early for any of the vaccines to have a long-term safety profile. Nor is there information about the length of protection (beyond 90 days) for any of the vaccines.
And the big concern for the vaccine producers is public confidence and acceptance, because without this, no vaccine can be successful. We still dont know how this is going to play out.
It has not been clear for some time that Remdesivir has sufficient evidence of clinical effectiveness. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has released the results of a large trial that fails to provide evidence of clinical effectiveness. This has led the WHO to conditionally recommend against the use of remdesivir in hospitalised patients, regardless of disease severity.
This week the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine published a summary of the basis for emergency approval by the FDA. Basically, this report concludes that while remdesivir doesnt affect mortality, there is some evidence of effect.
Whether measures to simplify treatment through nasal inhalation technology from TFF Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TFFP) or increased permeability and reduced volume (Starpharma (OTCQX:SPHRY) (OTCQX:SPHRF)) will provide a new life for remdesivir remain to be seen. The question is whether remdesivir can be made more effective.
Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) are leading the rush to develop monoclonal antibodies as early stage treatments for COVID-19. In effect, the goal is to provide the body with a boost by mimicking what the immune system does with monoclonal antibodies that are known to be effective.
There are some caveats about this approach. Firstly, it isnt clear that giving this late in the infection process will be harmless.
Eli Lilly has succeeded in gaining Emergency Use Authorization for its monoclonal bamlanivimab, prior to hospitalisation, although its effectiveness seems less than overwhelming.
Regeneron has also succeeded in gaining FDA Emergency Use Authorization for its monoclonal antibody combination casirivimab and imdevimab for patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 and who are at risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. Regeneron is working with University of Pennsylvania researchers to see if their monoclonal antibody cocktail can be delivered through the nose via Adenovirus vectors.
So far, the monoclonal antibody treatments have limited evidence of success in treating early stage infection, and they are expensive drugs. One would expect that they need to be effective to obtain approval.
Ive written recently about Starpharmas Viraleze nasal spray as a preventative/early phase treatment.
The rate of infection and death from COVID-19 is very different in different countries. Currently, Europe and the US are in a critical phase of a second wave of infections, with accelerating cases and threats to the integrity of the health systems.
The question is how to avoid runaway infections, increasing deaths and healthcare systems in danger of being overrun (again).
Im sure Ive missed a number of countries in highlighting here just 3 examples where a second wave has been successfully curtailed, so apologies to a number of other successful cases. The three I mention here are China, Singapore and Victoria in Australia. China and Singapore are special because China is a country where the government can and does have absolute discretion and therefore is able to enforce a hard lockdown. Singapores outbreak was primarily amongst foreign workers and thus a very focused intervention was possible. Australia is relevant because it is like Europe and the US, any action to control the pandemic requires a mixture of bringing the community with you along with tough measures that are not going to be popular (until the pandemic has been suppressed). A recent article from Australia gives insight into the kind of expert needed to succeed and how complicated the role of the expert is when interacting with politicians who have all kinds of pressure on them.
Australia managed the first wave well and so case numbers were very small when Victoria had an outbreak associated with a breakdown in hotel quarantine for Australians returning home. In early June, new case numbers were less than 10 daily, but this rapidly grew to 100s of new cases daily in July and the number peaked at 700 new daily cases in early August.
The rate of increase in Victoria was worse than that being experienced by the UK, but Victoria introduced a hard lockdown to aggressively address the problem. The UK delayed. To show how critical a delay in response becomes, the UK currently has around 15,000 new cases daily and around 500 daily deaths. The Victorian lockdown has controlled the outbreak and currently the new case load in the whole of Australia is around 10 new cases daily with negligible deaths.
The takeaway from Australias recent trauma is that to get the economy moving back towards normality requires the pandemic to be controlled, because if it isnt, one gets runaway infections (as the US is seeing now, with more than 200,000 new cases daily and more than 2,500 daily deaths) and threat to the stability of the entire health system.
Investors need to think about this in deciding about where countries sit in terms of economic recovery.
It is a surreal time in the US as the control of the country switches from President Trump who has overseen one of the worst outcomes of any country, with a fatalistic it happens approach. This means that the death toll is likely to approach 400,000 by January 20th, 2021 when President Biden assumes control. President-elect Biden has made clear that the COVID pandemic is his most urgent and immediate crisis; and he will address it as a crisis. What isnt clear is to what extent President Biden will be able to implement key issues (masks, lockdowns) given that these issues are now highly politicised. The rollout of a vaccine will help, but if the pandemic is still out of control at the end of January (which seems likely), it is hard to foresee how economic recovery will be possible in the short term, even if President Biden gets tax increases, stimulus and a major climate package through the Senate (unlikely unless the Democrats win the two senate seats in Georgia in January).
The above assessment of the situation in the US makes me pessimistic that at least a temporary market correction will be difficult to avoid.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been extraordinary at all levels and the progress nothing short of amazing in 2020. However, the pandemic isnt over and major challenges remain before the global economy can reset. And the reset will be different from the time before COVID. Markets are not accustomed to these kinds of highly technical challenges, and so after the initial sharp decline, the response has been patchy. No doubt some have made money investing with the ebbs and the flows of COVID news, along with news of vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. The bottom line is that there are still a lot of unknowns and enough is known about the highly infectious nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to expect a dramatic effect on the economies of different countries, depending on how they are managing the pandemic
We live in a global village so the travails of some reflect on the travails of others. However, there are some green shoots and glimmers of return to some form of normality. Three countries (China, Singapore and Australia) in particular have had success in controlling a second outbreak, while at the same time much of Europe, the Americas (both North and South) and Japan (from a low base) are experiencing harrowing times, which threaten economic recovery. The point is that while cases are accelerating, it is only a matter of time before action must be taken or the health system gets overrun. With the very large number of cases in Europe and the US in particular, the means to get the pandemic under control is through testing. Isolation and contact tracing are pretty ineffective when there is a significant number of new cases. President-elect Biden is considering seeking a 100-day mandatory mask wearing mandate to begin to address the US COVID-19 challenges. Dr. Fauci says, This is not a hoax.
Regarding the US economy, which has a major influence on global markets, for the reasons given above, uncertainty and possible economic setbacks seem likely to have a negative impact on the market. My suggestion is to be ready for a correction, which might prove to be an interesting buy opportunity. And if you are looking for a shorting opportunity, cruise ships (e.g. Carnival (NYSE:CCL), up 56% in the past month) have to be on the radar.
As regards to COVID-related investments, the treatment landscape remains uncertain, so I dont see clear opportunities yet. Ive indicated here that vaccine companies BioNTech and Moderna do seem to have some potential for short-term upside, although there is still a way to go to see exactly how the vaccine programs will play out.
I am not a financial advisor, but I have followed the COVID-19 pandemic closely, based on my scientific background and involvement in the biotech industry. If my commentary helps you and your financial advisor to think about investment in this space, please consider following me.
Disclosure: I am/we are long SPHRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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COVID-19 Update: Vaccines, Treatments And Lockdowns, Investment Implications - Seeking Alpha
‘Turkey to see more investment flow over next 5 years’ | Daily Sabah – Daily Sabah
Posted: at 7:55 pm
Turkey will see a larger volume of investment flow in the next five years, the head of Turkey's presidential investment office said Friday.
Turkey's investment office met with Turkish investors and startups during Web Summit 2020, which is among the most prominent technology conferences in the world, according to a statement by the office.
During the summit, a session named "Turkey: Reshaping Venture Capital in Emerging Markets," was held with the attendance of Turkish entrepreneurs.
Burak Daliolu, head of the office, whose views were included in the statement said: "As the Presidency Investment Office, venture capital and technology enterprises are among our priority agenda items. Istanbul also needs to reach its deserved place all over the world, as an entrepreneurship center."
Stressing that Turkey has a highly developed and supportive entrepreneurial ecosystem, Daliolu said international funds have invested in the country to gain higher returns.
Enis Hulli, partner of investment firm 500 Startups Istanbul also said the total amount invested in startups is around $100 million annually in Turkey.
"Turkey was one of the leading countries in this field with a total output volume of $3.5 billion since 2018. Considering the increasing interest of foreign investors and acquisitions, Turkey is one of the most profitable markets in the world for early-stage investors," he added.
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'Turkey to see more investment flow over next 5 years' | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah
The stock markets roller-coaster year exemplifies why staying invested pays off – CNBC
Posted: at 7:55 pm
What goes up must come down and then usually goes back up again, at least in the case of the U.S. stock market.
The market has been on a roller-coaster ride this year amid the coronavirus pandemic. The S&P 500 started the year strong, breaking the record for the longest-ever bull market. Then, in March, when the pandemic slammed the U.S. with sweeping lockdowns that brought most economic activity to a halt, the index tanked, falling 30% in 22 trading days and officially entering bear territory.
Stocks have since rebounded with surprising strength, climbing to multiple all-time highs even as Covid-19 cases continue to soar. Through Thursday's close, the S&P 500 has gained more than 13% year to date, and nearly 64% from its March 23 low.
"We have had tremendous support both on the fiscal and the monetary side that have supported markets in the downturn," said Charlie Ripley, vice president of capital markets at Allianz Investment Management. "It's sort of supported to perfection."
For those investing long-term, such as for retirement, staying in the market is often the best strategy, according to financial advisors.
Investors who panicked in March and sold assets may now be kicking themselves after the tremendous recovery the market has seen since. Even though it's tempting to retreat from the risks of the stock market when things go haywire, it's important to remember that investing means trading some volatility for the reward of growing wealth.
"Volatility is part of the equation, and that's kind of what the reward is for," said certified financial planner Kaya Ladejobi, founder of Earn Into Wealth in New York. "If your capital isn't at risk, you can't get those returns."
Research has shown that missing out on the best trading days has a huge impact on long-term returns, as they often follow the worst days. Using market data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that an investor who missed the S&P 500 index's best 10 days each decade would have a return of 91% compared to a 14,962% return for those who stayed invested.
"You can weather out the storms as long as you're not drawing on the portfolio," said Anjali Jariwala, CFP, CPA and founder of FIT Advisors in Torrance, California. She added that if you withdraw from the market and realize it was a mistake, it can be difficult to find a place to re-enter.
A market dip can be nerve-wracking, but it does not signal that it's time to get out of risk assets. In fact, it can be an opportunity to set yourself up for the next market rally.
"History tells us that markets do recover over time," said Jason Field, CFP, a financial advisor at Van Leeuwen & Company in Princeton, New Jersey. "When markets do go down, it does provide an opportunity to buy good-quality investments at lower prices."
Luckily, some investors were able to pick up on this amid the coronavirus pandemic market rout, according to Phuong Luong, CFP and founder of Just Wealth, a San Francisco-based fee-only financial planning firm.
While some of Luong's clients who are mostly in their 20s and 30s reached out in March to see if it was safe to be in the stock market, others asked her if they should be investing more.
"People are understanding better about the value of long-term investing and staying the course and that the risk of being in the market over time decreases," said Luong.
Of course, market swings may cause enough anxiety that it becomes clear that an investor has overestimated their risk tolerance and needs to reassess.
If that's the case, it's a good time to tweak asset allocations so that the next time there's a market dip, investors won't see as much volatility, said Jariwala, adding that on the other hand, they might not see the same returns as an aggressively invested portfolio.
In addition to having an appropriately balanced portfolio for your risk level, having a comprehensive financial plan for unplanned events like the coronavirus pandemic can help ease some anxiety, according to Ladejobi. This includes making sure you have a solid emergency fund as well as a road map for what to do if markets tank.
"When you have a financial plan in place and a strategy you can handle turbulent times better than when you don't have a plan," said Ladejobi.
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The stock markets roller-coaster year exemplifies why staying invested pays off - CNBC
This family bet everything on bitcoin when it was $900 and bought more when it crashed in 2018 – CNBC
Posted: at 7:55 pm
Didi Taihuttu, his wife, and three kids bet all they have on bitcoin.
In 2017, CNBC spoke to the Dutch family of five when they were in the process of liquidating their assets from a profitable business and 2,500-square-foot house, to their shoes and trading it all in for the popular cryptocurrency and a life on the road.
Nearly four years and 40 countries later, Taihuttu and his family still don't have bank accounts, a house, or all that much by way of personal possessions. All of the family's savings remain tied up in highly volatile cryptocurrencies.
"We stepped into bitcoin, because we wanted to change our lives," said the 42-year-old father of three.
When the price of bitcoin collapsed in 2018, Taihuttu added more to his investment portfolio. He says he was always a firm believer that the cryptocurrency was poised for a major rebound. "I think in this bull cycle, we are going to see a minimal peak of $100,000. I won't be surprised if it hits $200,000 by 2022."
I won't be surprised if [bitcoin] hits $200,000 by 2022.
The price of bitcoin reached an all-time high on Monday, as it closed in on $20,000. And some analysts say the cryptocurrency still has a lot of room to run higher.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital, thinks this comeback rally is only just getting started. He sees bitcoin rising to $60,000 by next year.
And Tom Fitzpatrick, global head of CitiFXTechnicals, said the charts signaled that bitcoin could reach $318,000 by December 2021, in a report meant for Citibank's institutional clients and obtained by CNBC.
Taihuttu bought the bulk of his bitcoin holdings when it was was trading at around $900 in early 2017, just months before it reached nearly $20,000 a coin.
Even as bitcoin peaked, the family stayed invested in the cryptocurrency. Once the bubble burst, and the price tumbled down to about $3,000 in early 2018, Taihuttu and his family weren't deterred. "When bitcoin dipped, we started to buy more."
When I asked Taihuttu on our Skype call whether he was worried that we could be in the midst of another bitcoin bubble, he doubled down on his investment. "I don't see demand going down," he added. "I think we're headed for a supply crisis."
Part of what's different about bitcoin's rally in 2020 versus 2017 is that institutional investors are now adopting bitcoin, lending it newfound legitimacy and helping to erase the reputational risk of investing in the cryptocurrency.
"The 2017 rally was largely driven by retail investors, whereas this year we're seeing a massive influx from corporate entities and institutional money managers," said Mati Greenspan, portfolio manager and founder of Quantum Economics.
Old-school, billionaire hedge fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones now own bitcoin and big fintech players like Square and PayPal are also adding crypto products.
This kind of mainstream adoption is hugely important, because cryptocurrencies like bitcoin aren't backed by an asset, nor do they have the full faith and backing of the government. They're valuable because people believe they're valuable. So it goes a long way when bitcoin gets buy-in from some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
The surge in interest from mainstream financial players hasn't just reformed bitcoin's image, it's also fomented a supply shortage.
"The basic reason for the two rallies are the same," Greenspan said. "It's a matter of digital scarcity. There is a strictly limited supply of bitcoin available in the market, so when everyone is buying and nobody is selling, it can cause tremendous upward pressure on the price. What's different this time are the players involved."
The 2017 rally was driven by retail speculation, and in 2020, it's the billionaires and corporations that are buying bitcoin en masse.
"When PayPal starts to sell bitcoin to its 350 million users, they also need to buy the bitcoin somewhere," said Taihuttu. "There will be a huge supply crisis, because there won't be enough new bitcoins mined everyday to fulfill the need by huge companies."
And that interest from institutional investors doesn't appear to be slowing down. Six out of 10 investors surveyed by Fidelity in June believe digital assets have a place in investment portfolios.
Mike Bucella, general partner at BlockTower Capital, told CNBC in a recent interview on "Power Lunch" that retail investors are actually the ones missing out on the bitcoin rally this year.
"If you dig a layer deeper in the derivatives market, you notice that most of that derivatives flow has transitioned from the crypto native exchanges of 2017 to institutional products, like the CME," said Bucella. "I think this really firmly indicates that retail actually missed out on this rally this year. It's been primarily and firmly an institutional bid."
But not all retail investors are missing out.
Taihuttu put a couple hundred thousand dollars into cryptocurrency in 2017, while the price of bitcoin was still trading lower, and he has mostly stayed all in on his investment.
Despite 2020's massive returns and all the recent bullish calls around bitcoin price targets, the fact remains, a speculative asset like bitcoin is prone to seismic price moves in a very short space of time.
In 2018, the massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, was swift, brutal and worse than the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
2020 may look different than 2017's rally, but as an asset, bitcoin behaves in a cyclical manner. Each successive high is higher, and the lows are not quite as low, but bitcoin is certainly not immune to another major correction.
Though for Taihuttu, the bitcoin play isn't all about making a profit. He's already given half of his money away to charity, and his family of five has spent the last four years traveling the world, in order to spread the gospel of decentralized digital currencies.
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This family bet everything on bitcoin when it was $900 and bought more when it crashed in 2018 - CNBC