Alibaba Cloud will invest $28 billion more into its infrastructure over the next three years – TechCrunch
Posted: April 26, 2020 at 4:41 am
Alibaba Cloud announced today that it will invest another RMB 200 billion (or about $28 billion) into its infrastructure over the next three years, prompted in part by increased demand for services like video conferencing and live streaming as businesses adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The investment will focus on expanding Alibaba Clouds technology, including its operating system, servers and chips, in its data centers. The provider currently has 63 availability zones, located in Asia, Australia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
In press statement, Jeff Zhang, president of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence and chief technology officer of Alibaba Group, said, By increasing our investment on cloud infrastructure and fundamental technologies, we hope to continue providing world-class, trusted computing resources to help businesses speed up the recovery process, and offer cloud-based intelligent solutions to support their digital transformation in the post-pandemic world.
In its last quarterly earnings report, issued in February, Alibaba reported cloud revenue grew 62% to $1.5 billion. Alibaba Cloud is the top cloud provider in the Asia Pacific market, according to Gartner.
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Alibaba Cloud will invest $28 billion more into its infrastructure over the next three years - TechCrunch
These Old Sports Cars Are Great Investments Today (Even If Theyre A Little Expensive) – TheThings
Posted: at 4:41 am
If youre willing to fork over more up front, these older sports cars could fetch you more down the line.
Fears of a global coronavirus pandemic have ground the automotive industry to a halt. Manufacturers have either shut down their plants entirely or repurposed machinery to create medical equipment, while consumers have stopped buying new vehicles almost altogether amid an economic contraction the likes of which the world has never witnessed.
For the individual gearhead, though, the current environment has its pros and cons. One benefit is a complete lack of traffic on the highways and byways of America, though most Cars and Coffee events have been canceled, as well. And the effects of this situation on the secondhand market remain to be seen, especially when it comes to collectible cars given that the world's wealthiest people don't seem to suffer as much as an average person might during times of hardship.
Regardless of how the economy ends up, keep scrolling for 14 old sports cars that offer great investment potentialeven if they're a little expensive today.
BMW has struggled to live up to the company's "Ultimate Driving Machine" slogan for almost the past two decades. But looking back at the E30-generation M3 would provide a simple recipe for success: respectable power, perfect balance, and driver engagement. All of those qualities are what make the E30 M3 unlikely to ever go down in value.
RELATED:8 Old BMW Cars That Lost All Their Value (And 7 On The Rise)
While many supercars suffer significant depreciation over the course of their lives, few do so with the kind of impeccable reliability offered by the 996-generation Porsche 911 Turbo. With a twin-turbocharged flat-six known as the "Mezger" engine that uses a dry-sump oiling system and all-wheel drive, the 996 Turbo is truly a steal today and will always be a good investment.
The Lancia Delta HF Integrale is the world's most successful rally carbut the whole rest of the world knows that. The snag here is that American collectors are just starting to catch on to this hot hatch's amazing attributes and the 25-year importation rule has now elapsed. Right now is the perfect time to buy, especially for a not-quite-range-topping Evo model, as opposed to the later Evo II.
Another sports car that was never shipped to the United States but that is now eligible for importation thanks to the 25-year rule is the Audi RS2. This was a sporty wagon that singlehandedly created the market for sporty wagons and was built with a lot of help from Porsche. And values are only going to go up, without a doubt.
Honda built the original NSX to be a Ferrari-beater with stellar reliability at a fraction of the cost. Today, one of the world's best supercars is easy to find around the $35-50,000 range, with the advantage that these cars can run for hundreds of thousands of miles with little more than routine maintenance required.
When it comes to a legit track scalpel that will never lose value short of being rolled at Laguna Seca, the 996 generation of the Porsche 911 is here once again. The GT3 of the era used the same Mezger engine as the Turbojust without the turbochargers, and sent all its power to the rear wheels through a six-speed stick shift.
On the cheaper end of relatively expensive sports cars that are getting up there in terms of age and yet offer excellent investment potential comes the BMW known affectionately as the "Clown Shoe." The best bet for a good M Coupe is a later S54-equipped example, which shares its inline-six with the E46 M3.
Mitsubishi fans will swear that the Lancer Evo is a much better car than the Subaru STI, its main competitor. Regardless, everyone in their right mind should jump at any opportunity to get their hands on a Lancer Evo Tommi Makinen Edition, which features all kinds of rally-bred goodies in addition to the Lancer Evo's already hardcore package.
RELATED: Here Are The Worst Sports Cars Audi, BMW, And Mercedes Ever Produced
Most Subaru fans know about the first-generation Impreza and specifically, the JDM-only 22b STI. This unicorn is a coupe with fender flares and all the turbocharged Boxer engine goodness that made later models of the WRX and STI so popular in the statesall in a lighter car that looks much, much better.
The C8 Corvette has emerged as a potent mid-engined supercar available at a surprisingly reasonable price. But it still can't hold a candle to the outgoing C7 Corvette in Z06 or ZR1 trimand with the coronavirus delaying the C8's development, there's a good chance that fact will remain true for a few years, at least.
It's hard to believe that the Porsche Cayman is almost fifteen years old, though this mid-engined track star has come a long way in the interim years. Still, a first-gen Cayman in the second formwith a facelift and no IMS concernsoffers great potential for investment plus all the great performance of a Porsche at a fraction of the price.
RELATED: 8 Reasons Supercars Use AWD (And 7 Reasons They Shouldnt)
BMW recently revived the 8 Series in an attempt to get back to the company's roots, though the experiment looks to have largely fallen flat. But the original 8 Series has done some serious appreciating recently, especially the rare 850CSi variant. And that means the time is now to get into the next-highest trim level, the 850i, and its V12 engine ASAP.
Lotus has announced the electric Evija supercar and teased a forthcoming "affordable" sports car as its final internal combustion-only model ever. But the Exige remains arguably the best Lotus ever in terms of all-out performance, despite having debuted two decades ago. And there's not much of a chance any Lotus will ever be lighter or nimbler ever again.
At the high end of collectible cars that are sure to remain solid investments comes the Ferrari 360 Modena. With smooth styling and a level of analog driving that has largely vaporized from Ferrari's lineup, the 360 Modena hails from the best era in automotive history: when computers had begun to help cars but hadn't yet started to hinder their enjoyability.
NEXT: 10 Fast Sports Cars That Handle Very Well (And 5 That Dont)
Sources: Classic Driver, Car and Driver, and Jalopnik.
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These Old Sports Cars Are Great Investments Today (Even If Theyre A Little Expensive) - TheThings
Brian Pfeifler: How to Invest in a Changed World – Barron’s
Posted: at 4:41 am
WITH AN AVERAGE NET WORTH of $100 million, Brian Pfeiflers clients dont need to worry about day-to-day stock market moves and yet theyre riveted. Despite the fact that they have, in many instances, generational wealth, almost everyone is attuned to this just-in-time world that we live in, says Pfeifler, a Morgan Stanley lifer whose $13.7 billion practice is based in New York.
Speaking with Barrons Advisor, Barrons fifth-ranked advisor nationally explains how he responds to those nervous clients. He predicts a U-shaped recovery from the pandemic-fueled crash, and tells us where hes looking to invest. And he details a pivotal decision years ago that laid the groundwork for his career.
Q: Brian, four members of your 10-person team are working from the Palm Beach office that you opened in January with financial advisors having been deemed an essential service by the State of Florida. What steps are you taking to stay safe?
A: I get in the car at my house, I drive to the office. I park, I walk right in, wash my hands, get to the desk, stay away from people. I have lunch that I brought in. I leave at six or so and go home and do the same thing the next day.
We are in Palm Beach and I think there are something like 10 people on the entire island who have the disease. Its very odd. Its just very, very quiet; everything is closed, with the exception of restaurants, which are doing takeout. But its extraordinarily hectic in terms of work.
Q: How do you see this whole situation playing out?
A: I think the longer-term ramifications are unknown, and the longer it persists, obviously, the more poignant those ramifications become.
But given that youve got the smartest minds in the world trying to figure out a vaccine and [treatments] for this, and the amount of research dollars that are going towards it, youll probably have a widespread vaccine within 12 months. And I do think that once you have that, as hard as it is to imagine, we in many ways will probably go back to a more normalized way of living.
In 2008-2009 the world was ending, for a whole host of reasons. But with government intervention, recapitalizing the financial sector, and time, equity markets did extraordinarily well. Now that were in this, youve seen the Fed and the government in the U.S., but also the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and also their governments on the fiscal side, address the Covid problem in a much quicker manner. Three quarters of what the Fed did in 08 and 09 already has been done within six weeks.
Q: What are you telling clients about the markets?
A: We have a great group of clients and it skews very high net worth. So even with major market declines, in almost every instance, they are not going to impact the quality of life of the clients, or their spending or their ability to continue to live the way theyve lived. So we can take a long-term focus.
Having said that, I would say that 90% of the calls Ive had over the past five or six weeks, have been, OK, whats the market going to do over the next few days? Whats the market going to do over the next three, four weeks?
So despite the fact that they have, in many instances, generational wealth, almost everyone is attuned to this just-in-time world that we live in. They want to know in real time whats the portfolio value, how much is that down, how much is that up, when is this going to stop.
Q: How do you respond?
A: My message to them is I have absolutely no idea what the markets will do over the next four weeks. No one really had a great call coming into this. When the markets were at their bottoms, a lot of very smart, celebrated people were saying that people should be still very cautious. Now the market is up 20-odd percent from there, and a lot of stocks are up more than that.
Theres no doubt that the cash flow earnings for almost every company out there, with the exception of an Amazon, Costco, maybe a Netflix and things like that, are going to be lower in 2020, and materially lower at least in the second quarter and probably the third quarter. And they are probably going to be lower in 2021. Im not necessarily in the camp of an immediate V-shaped recovery here; I think the best case is that were going to have more of a U shape.
Having said that, I think its also quite likely that we do have a therapeutic and a vaccine by early to mid-next year that is widely available in the U.S., Europe and all developed areas. My sense is that once the vaccine is out there, behavior will go back to relatively normal. And I think that means that looking out to 2022 and beyond, the earnings stream for most companies is probably not going to be that much different than where it was coming into this.
So if one takes a view, not of the next quarter, not of the next few quarters, maybe not even of the next 12 months, but of the next 24 months, the picture is much more optimistic than what the current market is pricing in. Recognize that short term can be very ugly, ensure that you have enough liquidity on the sidelines to get through these types of downturns, [but recognize that] any company that makes it through this is really going to be viewed on the sum of their 10-year cash flows and 10-year earnings, and the near term earnings hit is not that important.
Q: So you remain bullish on stocks for the long term.
A: I think stocks still are attractive on a long-term basis, although I think the next year could certainly be choppy. My sense is that equities came into this offering a better opportunity set than fixed income on a longer-term basis, and they continue to represent that now.
The bad news has been coming out on infections re-emerging in some places, which Im sure they probably will in the U.S. Whether that will mandate additional shutdowns I dont know, but even if things go well, youre going to have those types of flareups and such. That will cause downturns in the markets and cause risk assets to decline more than safety assets in the short term, but I think in the longer term thats still where one wants to be.
So we are spending a lot of time discussing that with clients. Thats not to say not to have reserves on the sideline, because it can always get worse. My view is that clients should always have money on the sidelines to get them through a very ugly market for between three and five years. Its just what you do with the assets outside of that reserve.
For many people with a lot of wealth, who spend very small portions of their net worth, I still [like] equities and now increasingly, distressed debt situations. Were very attracted by right now because of the dislocation there.
Q: Lets talk about distressed debt in a moment. First, which sectors do you see as good values right now for long-term stock investors?
A: Large U.S. financial institutions are too cheap right now. You have to recognize which businesses will come out of this with different cost structures in the same way that Wall Street came out of 2008-2009.
Coming out of the recession, the financial services industry went through a fundamental change in terms of regulation, compliance costs, the amount of capital that we had to build up, and the amount of equity issuance to get to that capital buffer level. We came out of it very, very different than how we entered it.
I dont think we come out [of this recession] that differently than we entered. But for an airline company, I dont think anyone is going to get on a plane ever again without that plane being extraordinarily clean. I think that industry exits with a much higher cost structure than they came into this crisis with, as does the cruise industry and all that.
Think about hotels, that are already cleaning every room overnight. I think people probably will be more inclined to go to a [high-end] brand hotel. I think that will give them a level of comfort that you may not have in lesser-known brands or, say, some of the AirBnB-type things. And thats going to have positive implications for those companies when we come out of this, I think.
And then, certainly, weve been very invested in technology and the move towards the cloud [via] public equities. Weve also allocated a tremendous amount of our client capital to growth equity in the private technology space through private equity funds that focus on technology in the U.S. and in China.
I dont really have any position in the most hard-hit things like airlines and the cruise industry. I dont see how that works out very well for them.
Q: To what extent do you think businesses will continue to rely on remote rather than in-person communications after the vaccine?
A: I am not of the belief that everyone is going remotely at all. There is a huge value to being together in the workforce. Remember after 9/11, everyone thought that Polycom was the best buy in the world and everything was going to be remote? After that, people got comfortable with what was going on at TSA, and everyone started traveling again. The travel industry had an extraordinary boom for a whole slew of years.
I think that if you have an effective vaccine, the world will resume and people will want to go see clients face to face. Any business that thinks they can [interact] 100% remotely, I think, will not succeed against those companies that see their clients face to face, whatever industry theyre in.
And people will want to travel. You are going to have a continued expansion of the middle class in China and different places and they are going to want to travel. So there will be a need for airplanes.
Q: What are your thoughts about distressed credit?
A: There will be really good opportunities for those who can effectively navigate that landscape. We dont do that directly, but we have managers that weve been with for a long time.
Ive been around for years and years, having started in high yield. And typically every seven years you see a blowup in high yield. Were in one right now, and the spread widening has been commensurate with what you saw in 2008 2009. Ive outlined the view that we get back to a more normalized economy within, say, a year and a half. I think credit will also normalize over that same time period. Youre seeing a lot of large, well-known funds raising money to take advantage of it.
I dont think high quality government debt for a long-term hold is particularly attractive right now. I think it will underperform distressed credit and equities over a three, five and 10-year holding period.
Q: Brian, I want to touch on your career if we can. Can you point to a couple of milestone decisions that helped you get where you are today?
A: First of all, coming to Morgan Stanley was a milestone. Morgan Stanley allowed me to have varied experiences.
Q: Right, you started as an analyst at the investment bank, then traded bonds, then moved to wealth management.
A: And two, we made the decision early on that I was going to make the investment decisions. I think you have a lot of people in this business who focus on raising assets, and relegate the role of the investment side to more junior people or to internal models within the firm.
I always wanted to be directly in control of [investments], and so to make a determination that I was going to run a large portfolio of U.S. equities, which I do today, and then select the managers that we invest with on our best-of-breed, open-architecture platform.
I never have focused on raising assets; how to generate new clients doesnt even cross my mind. A hundred percent of our clients come from reverse inquiry. We probably generate three or four new clients a year from referrals, and thats that. Thats a big decision I made, and I think its really helped us in terms of performance.
Q: Was the idea that if you took care of performance, the business development would take care of itself?
A: Yeah. If you think about it, if you can generate two very good clients a year for 20 years, thats 40 great clients. I would say we probably have 50 great clients now. We focus on doing a great job, and then if those assets perform well, our entire business grows.
Q: Youve navigated through a number of market and economic crises. What lessons are you applying now in order to deal with the pressure?
A: Im not going to lie, its been very, very stressful. The vast majority of our clients are entrusting us with their financial wellbeing. Outside of their health and their family, its probably the most important consideration they have in their life.
It was very stressful back in 1994 when I was trading bonds. It was very stressful in 1999 and 2000. And it was very stressful in 2008 and 2009. Ive been doing this for 30 years; Im 52. I think as you get older youre more focused on your own wellbeing, because you realize its more precious. I would say that I definitely sleep more than I did 20 years ago. Im really trying to get seven-odd hours a night, and Im trying to exercise every day. And Im also just trying to remind myself that this too will pass.
Q: Thanks, Brian.
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Brian Pfeifler: How to Invest in a Changed World - Barron's
Construction pension fund to invest in Larchmere apartment project – Crain’s Cleveland Business
Posted: at 4:41 am
The $23 million apartment building proposed for Cleveland's Larchmere neighborhood has landed a commitment from the building union pension fund-backed ERECT Funds for a $5.6 million investment.
David Wondolowski, executive secretary of the Cleveland Building & Construction Trades Council, shared a copy of an email with Crain's Cleveland Business saying the funds adviser had secured board approvals on Tuesday, April 21, after nine months underwriting the project.
In a phone interview Friday, April 24, Wondolowski said he is excited the fund was able to help the project's developer close a gap in the capital stack for the project.
"It's another example of the building trades coming through for the developer of the project and the community," Wondolowski said. A provision for receiving the funds is that the recipient agree to 100% union construction of the site.
Larchmere developer First Interstate Properties of Lyndhurst used the same source to help fund One University Circle, a high-rise apartment building on Euclid Avenue that First Interstate and homebuilder Sam Petros opened last year.
The 88-unit property is designed to produce rentals for the general workforce, a different market than One University's upscale rentals. The Larchmere building is proposed for 12201 Larchmere Ave., near the landmark Larchmere Boulevard commercial district.
A First Interstate affiliate in late March acquired the 1.5-acre site for the project, including the 1960s-era building that will be demolished, for $950,000.
The ERECT funding approval means the project is nearing a closing of construction funding. However, no mortgage documents were filed by April 21, according to Cuyahoga County online real estate records.
Mitchell Schneider, First Interstate president, did not return a phone call and email about the project by 1 p.m. on Friday.
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Construction pension fund to invest in Larchmere apartment project - Crain's Cleveland Business
Unsolved issues and huge investments in COVID vaccine manufacturing – ABC News
Posted: at 4:41 am
April 25, 2020, 3:10 PM
8 min read
8 min read
As the nations scientists toil in laboratories to find a vaccine for COVID-19, the federal government, research groups and the pharmaceutical industry are working to solve a different scientific challenge: massively scaling up production of these vaccines so they can be ready to deploy as soon as there is proof that one of them works.
"Thinking about manufacturing and scale-up in the very earliest stages is critical," Dr. Barton Haynes, director of the Duke Human Vaccine Institute told ABC News. "The question is: what do we need to be doing now to deliver a vaccine that we think is safe and effective as quickly as possible?"
Unfortunately, industry scientists find that the vaccine technologies being tested today wont be easy to scale, thanks to the complex nature of vaccines. And now, amid a rush to scale up manufacturing in preparation for eventual launch, the Trump administration has unseated Dr. Rick Bright, the government official responsible for leading the charge on the production and purchase of vaccines.
Bright, previously director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), wrote a scathing rebuke of his ousting, claiming the Trump administration is placing politics and cronyism ahead of science.
Even with Bright gone, the race to scale up vaccine manufacturing continues, now with acting director Gary Disbrow at the helm. So far, BARDA has invested heavily in the nations most promising vaccine candidates, including $483 million to Moderna and committing more than $1 billion together with Johnson & Johnson for vaccine development and manufacturing.
Vaccine development costs a lot of time and money. Science typically proceeds in a linear fashion, first in test tubes, then in animals and people, and then eventually the expensive and complex process of manufacturing large batches of vaccines for mass immunization.
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However, in this pandemic, all these phases need to overlap simultaneously. That means that vaccine groups must start preparing to ramp up production, sometimes before knowing that their vaccine works in test tubes.
"Theres a full-out, break-the-glass attitude about making this vaccine," said Dr. Paul Offit, co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine who sits on the Food and Drug Administrations vaccine advisory committee.
Even before showing that the vaccine can produce a lasting, protective immune response, groups are making a bet and taking huge financial risk to make plans for scale-up.
"The easier part is creating strains and showing proof that your concept works in animals. But then you have to do the hard part In vaccines, the process is the product," said Offit.
Although the pipeline of COVID-19 vaccine candidates is diverse, most are stuttering in their goals of being deployed at a pandemic scale.
Moderna, for example, made headlines with its mRNA candidate vaccine, which entered initial early stage safety testing in humans less than ten weeks after the genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 was released on January 11.
But Moderna uses RNA -- a brand new technology in vaccines at this scale -- meaning scientists cant yet predict what manufacturing problems might crop up. Other groups, such as Duke, the Imperial College of London and Fudan University in China, are also exploring this promising approach.
RNA technology leaves researchers with many unsolved challenges, compared to more traditional vaccine types that are already mass produced. One current problem is storage to ensure the vaccine doesnt degrade. This proves especially tricky for RNA which, by nature, is an intrinsically unstable molecule.
"We havent figured out a way to make RNAs stable in the refrigerator yet," said Dr. Rhiju Das, associate professor of biochemistry at Stanford and leader of Eterna massive open laboratory.
"Currently, theyll have to be deployed in ultra-cold freezers at -80C. These are available to us since we live near biomedical research facilities, but theyre not going to be available to my friends and family who live in rural parts of the U.S. or in India," Das said.
Yet another problem is securing enough accessory chemicals, critical for vaccine production.
"Many of these RNA vaccines are formulated with magical chemicals that look like oil droplets. These accessory materials are expensive and hard to make in large quantities. No one has figured out how to scale up their manufacturing or get the costs low enough so that everyone can get the vaccine," explained Das.
Other types of vaccines being tested are composed of a piece of the virus. The pharmaceutical companies GlaxoSmithKline, Novavax and Clover are all at various stages of testing this approach. Called protein subunit and recombinant protein vaccines, this approach is similar to existing vaccines used for HPV and Hepatitis B.
But even this more traditional vaccine approach comes with its own distinct scale-up challenges. These vaccines may require booster shots to provide lasting protection against COVID-19.
For other vaccinate candidate types, scientists are unsure if one dose is enough to generate and maximize a protective immune response, meaning each American might have to be given multiple doses -- further complicating manufacturing scale-up.
An employee shows a blood sample for COVID-19 antibody testing at home at the Labor Dr. Heidrich & Kollegen MVZ GmbH medical lab, on April 16, 2020, in Hamburg, Germany. The Heidrich lab, one of approximately 130 medical labs in Germany doing COVID-19 testing, is processing on average over 100 tests a day, both from people who use the lab's at-home swabbing kit and from samples arriving from local medical practices.
All the issues of development, manufacturing, scale-up and distribution, would be nearly insurmountable for one group to tackle on their own. Of the confirmed active vaccine candidates, 56 are being developed by private industry developers, while 22 projects are being led by academic, public sector and other non-profit organizations, according to a report in Nature.
The pandemic has brought unprecedented collaboration among vaccine developers across the world. The National Institutes of Health is launching a public-private partnership to speed COVID-19 vaccine and treatment options, known as ACTIV -- short for Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines.
Scientists work tirelessly to curb the pandemic through developing a safe, effective vaccine that can reach people across the world. Experts hope the enthusiasm for a COVID-19 vaccine will transfer to other vaccination efforts.
"Past vaccine efforts have been more limited on the patient uptake side than on the supply side. Some people are resistant to flu vaccines," Dr. Andrew Badley, chair of the Mayo Clinic Covid Research Task Force, said to ABC News.
"With this global scare, Im hopeful that vaccine uptake will be better. I hope that people learn that vaccines for other infectious diseases are beneficial, too. And I hope that in the coming years, more people will opt to take those vaccines as well," Badley said.
Tiffany Kung, M.D., a resident physician at Presbyterian/St. Luke's Hospital in Denver, is a contributor to the ABC News Medical Unit.
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Unsolved issues and huge investments in COVID vaccine manufacturing - ABC News
Now is the time to invest in your business’ digital upgrade – Technical.ly
Posted: at 4:41 am
If youre not Netflix, Amazon or Walmart right now, youre probably bracing for a rough few months or more.
The New York Times estimated the unemployment rate is already at 20%. The ad industry is estimated to see nearly $26 billion in lost revenue. Supply chains have taken a massive hit, and even Apple has hit some turbulence, with iPhone shipments reduced by as much as 10% in Q1. All conferences and live events have been canceled; the music industry and the tech event industry are poised to lose billions.
But heres the good news: There is opportunity for growth. I work with some of the countrys top brands in media, technology, retail, finance and information services, and I have seen what leads businesses to fail and what leads them to succeed. And the truth is that businesses need to lean into their digital strategies right now to have the best chance of weathering this crisis and coming out of it stronger.
Yes, in the midst of economic uncertainty, Im suggesting you make an investment in growing not just sustaining your business. COVID-19 isnt just changing how were doing business this spring; its going to change how we do business far into the future.
Take the retail space for example: If youre not online in retail right now, youre not in business. Retail is the nations largest private-sector employer, but in March, retailers across the country cut 46,200 jobs; that number could rise into the millions. Retailers with a strong digital presence, on the other hand, have seen a surge in business as people are relying on ecommerce and mobile for nearly all their purchases. There is so much new business coming in that some such as Walmart and Amazon are planning to hire hundreds of thousands of new employees.
Even companies that already have an established digital presence are working to beef up their existing infrastructure to catch up to the industry leaders. For example, Best Buy just launched curbside pick-up across the country in late March. Now, its 1,200 stores are closed to customers but delivering orders to cars in their parking lots. Another example is Giant-Eagles new Pick-Up Centers, which are converting traditional stores into dedicated pick-up locations that enable customers to perform the expensive last-mile delivery themselves. These examples could become the new normal, as customers become accustomed to mobile app ordering and seamless curbside pickup.
The reality is that peoples buying habits are changing, and while brick and mortar is sure to make a comeback when lockdowns are over, there will likely be more demand for digital platforms in retail whether that means more digital payment options, virtual showrooms, in-store recommendations based on your online search history, or digital price tags.
Or consider healthcare. The healthcare industrys transition to telemedicine has rapidly accelerated in the face of COVID-19. Online pharmacies like UpScript are booming. IoT and remote patient monitoring are already proving to be extremely helpful in the midst of the pandemic, with organizations like Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centerusing this technology to continuously monitor patients and get real time updates. This technology is already being deployed in various use cases across healthcare, and we will likely see it deployed more and more as a way to provide better real time care to patients.
Telehealth startups are in the forefront of the news. A large portion of the $2 trillion stimulus bill was focused on expanding telehealth access for Americans, and federal policy will surely follow the easing of rules around telemedicine that were already seeing at the state level. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine just signed an order allowing social workers, family counselors and marriage counselors to offer telehealth services. To be HIPAA compliant, these organizations will need to invest in buying or building true telehealth software not just spinning up a noncompliant FaceTime or Skype session. This creates the opportunity for multiple new telehealth providers to enter the market.
Media is another industry that is facing dramatic transformation. With live sports on hiatus, were streaming more media than ever. Americans streamed 85% more video in March 2020 than in March 2019, on platforms and channels from Netflix to YouTube to PBS. More streaming services are being launched, such as HBO Max, NBC Peacock and Quibi. COVID-19 could accelerate subscriptions as people become more accustomed to paying for content they appreciate.
Additionally, live events are shifting to virtual events. Financial Times predicts that many wont want to go back to airless conference centers now that theyve seen what events are like from the comfort of their own couches. Lady Gagas virtual concert held in mid-April drew 20 million viewers.
Investing in new products and platforms is always a risk, and maintaining the status quo is the easiest path during times of economic uncertainty. But many businesses that plan to stand still right now will end up backsliding. Taking the risk to improve your organizations digital infrastructure could ensure your current and future viability.
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Now is the time to invest in your business' digital upgrade - Technical.ly
Ways of the Black Swan and how to handle it in investing – Economic Times
Posted: at 4:41 am
Nassim Taleb, in his book, explains a Black Swan event as one that a) is unexpected and b) carries extreme impact. The coronavirus pandemic is a Black Swan event considering that it was not predicted, and it has led to a virtual shutdown in a large part of the world.
In the investment world, such events pose a challenge. Preparing for bubbles is different. There are some indicators or markers that would signal to the keen observer that prices have significantly moved higher than fundamental values. Here, the investor can vary the exposure levels to participate and later protect oneself from such bubbles. But how does one prepare for something that is difficult to predict?
One can buy insurance through hedging. However, being hedged against all kinds of risks, all the time will adversely impact returns.
Common characteristics of market crisis
There may not be a way to anticipate Black Swan events, but there are ways to navigate them and use them to our advantage (carefully). Market crashes historically have some common characteristics:
Investors are gripped by fear and predict a wide range of forecasts about the market (some of them extremely bearish). Unfortunately, the reigning pessimism will push people to assign high probability to extreme outcomes too. (Fear of further loss, herd mentality)
Growth premium falls. Valuations crash to historic lows. Creative valuation methods are exposed. (Negative feedback loop)
High uncertainty will lead to investors giving unduly high importance to short term movements. (Myopic loss aversion)
Correlations rise and hence diversification may not help much. Investors take cash calls. (Liquidity preference)
Good news is ignored. Participants overreact to bad news. (Cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias)
Market crash affects economic activity adversely. (Reflexivity)
Credit markets get impacted. Financial institutions may shy away from lending. Credit spreads rise Leveraged companies under serious threat. (Risk off)
New money stops moving into equity. Panic leads to redemptions or exits. (Risk off)
Headlines and sentiment will be negative. (Narratives)
Once investors know the behavioural cycle of the market, they have an edge that can help them take advantage of the crash. They can buy into the pessimism, hold the investments through the long term and sell into euphoria. The seeds of wealth are sown during bad times and the fruits of the effort are harvested during good times.
Handling the Swan
Once you understand the market cycle and are convinced to take advantage of the crash, there are two important questions to address: How to invest?
And What to invest in?
How to invest: Handling duration blindness
One of the most difficult problems an investor faces in handling black swan type crisis is duration blindness. Since there is no precedence of such an event, it is difficult to estimate the time the crisis will last for. The investor can use various estimates from experts but make room for the errors in forecasting too. It is extremely rare to catch the exact low of the market while investing.
Hence it is better to stagger the investment over a significant period of time. Selection of this time frame is subjective. However, it is better to keep a longer duration so as to accommodate a margin of safety in terms of timing too.
What to invest in: Handling portfolio selection
During a market crash, the frothy valuations get almost eliminated and sub-standard businesses are penalised heavily. The investor is in given an opportunity to choose from a wide variety of businesses that have come to attractive levels. To create a robust portfolio, one must follow some basic principles:
Stay within the circle of competence: Typically, in these markets, investors run a screener to check which stocks have corrected the most in the fall. Being anchored at the 52-week high or all-time high prices, one is tempted to dive into businesses that one may not have tracked earlier. Not knowing what you are buying (irrespective of valuation) makes you vulnerable to losses. Stay within the stock universe that you understand well.
Avoid companies with high financial leverage: Leveraged companies can often run into liquidity troubles. These businesses have to survive the downturn to make money for the investor.
Also, in an environment where quality companies are available at attractive valuations, there needs to be very high payoff to move into riskier stocks. Unless, the earnings trajectory is fairly visible, dabbling with high debt companies can be avoided.
Buy robust business model, cash rich, high RoCE companies: During a bull market, even companies with fragile businesses or weak balance sheets or negative cashflow profiles are able to raise money based on a concept or an idea. A lot of zombie companies continue to survive due to easy money conditions.
After a crash, investors who have burnt their fingers in such stocks, will shift to companies that have a robust growth-oriented business model, good management and strong balance sheet. Healthy cashflows and RoCE are a mark of a good business. Scalability, brand franchise and good leadership are other important characteristics to choose a company.
To sum up, Black Swan events are unexpected, high impact events. Investors can take advantage of these events by understanding the fundamentals and behavior of a market crash. However, it is important to a) be humble and stagger the investments over a reasonable time frame and b) be meticulous in picking up good quality businesses.
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Ways of the Black Swan and how to handle it in investing - Economic Times
Mike Bloomberg invested over $20 million in Hawkfish weeks after he dropped out of the 2020 primary – CNBC
Posted: at 4:41 am
Former Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg addresses his staff and the media after announcing that he will be ending his campaign on March 04, 2020 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Billionaire and former presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg has invested over $20 million in his own digital tech company weeks after he dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary.
The $20 million investiture went to Hawkfish on March 31 through Bloomberg's campaign, according to a new Federal Election Commission filing. That disbursement was for "digital consulting" but the Bloomberg campaign had already ended by then and his team was in the process of moving on from a disappointing run for president. Another $1.5 million was spent on Hawkfish on that same day for "digital advertising." Bloomberg officially dropped out of the race on March 4 after entirely funding the campaign.
The massive sum is on top of the $45 million the campaign spent on Hawkfish's services throughout the firm's work for its founder Bloomberg, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The eight-figure spend by Bloomberg in March shows that Hawkfish has a ton of financial reserves that could be of help to any campaign that signs up for its services.
Bloomberg, a billionaire with a net worth of $54 billion, seems to have disappeared from the scene after transferring $18 million to the Democratic National Committee and walking away from having his own outside entity help the apparent party nominee in Joe Biden. He ended up laying off his staff who were placed in key battleground states in the wake of his withdrawal in March.
A person close to Bloomberg in the business community, who declined to be named in order to speak freely, recently told CNBC that the former New York mayor is still disappointed in the way his campaign panned out after spending just over $1 billion of his own money, and he's not yet ready to get back into the public eye of taking on President Donald Trump. Party donors have been privately hoping that Bloomberg gets more involved sooner rather than later as Trump, along with the Republican National Committee, has an extensive war chest that they've been building for years.
A spokesman for Bloomberg declined to comment.
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Mike Bloomberg invested over $20 million in Hawkfish weeks after he dropped out of the 2020 primary - CNBC
Missile Investments Are Needed to Meet China’s Nuclear Challenge – The Diplomat
Posted: at 4:41 am
Magazine April 2020 War and Peace in the Philippines Asia Defense|Security|East Asia
Convincing China to agree to nuclear limitation agreements will require investments in American forces.
Prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic, President Donald Trump made clear his intention to engage China and Russia to seek new agreements limiting theater- and intercontinental-range nuclear missiles.
However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaderships long-standing refusal to join nuclear limitation negotiations, its Peoples Liberation Armys (PLAs) current overwhelming superiority in theater nuclear and nuclear capable systems, and its broad investments in new intercontinental nuclear systems and new strategic missile defenses, require that Washington also place a high priority on developing new strategic nuclear capabilities and making additional investments in missile defenses to counter this aggression.
The logic for pursuing negotiations is compelling: there is a good chance that China is seeking nuclear parity, if not superiority, versus the United States. Yes of course, China regularly denies that it seeks a large strategic nuclear force. But perhaps such statements, combined with Chinas abhorrence of nuclear transparency, reflect its deeper history of strategic deception.
After all, it was Chinas achievement of decisive superiority in theater nuclear-capable missiles, about 1,800 to 2,000 systems, that helped the Trump administration withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia. The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) now has the precision land-attack and anti-ship capable, 4,000-kilometer range Dong Feng (DF)-26 and the 2,000-km range DF-17, the worlds first maneuverable anti-missile evading Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) armed theater missile.
Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashleys May 30, 2019 statement at the Hudson Institute that China could over the next decade double the size of its nuclear stockpile, which could reach about 600 nuclear warheads, is regarded as an overestimate by some analysts. But this could be an underestimate considering the variety of new intercontinental missiles now being deployed or developed.
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The PLARF may have three six-missile brigades of the liquid-fueled silo-based DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with perhaps two brigades with the three-warhead DF-5B. Meanwhile the 10-warhead DF-5C is in development but could be succeeded by a silo-based version of the solid-fueled 10-warhead capable DF-41. A road-mobile version of the DF-41 may already equip multiple brigades and a rail-based version is also under development.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) meanwhile is reported to have tested its new, potentially multiple warhead capable, JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). And sometime in the mid-2020s, the Xian H-20 flying-wing strategic bomber will complete the PLAs strategic triad.
At the same time as this Chinese missile buildup, Americas nuclear forces and missile defenses are in flux. Of note is the upgrade of the Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) meant to destroy incoming offensive ICBMs launched at the United States.
The Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV), the presumptive successor to the current Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV), was scuttled in 2019 due to budget cuts, fewer test opportunities, and an accelerated development. In its place the Pentagon has committed to developing the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) to counter ICBM threats, but this will not be an active missile defense system until at least 2026, and some experts estimate it may not be operational for as many as 12 years. This leaves a strategic capability gap. The United States should therefore make immediate investments in missile capabilities to counter current Chinese threats.
Fully funding theater and strategic missile and missile defense programs offer the most effective means to deter China. The new medium and intermediate range missiles under development for the U.S. Army and Navy, air-launched hypersonic missiles, tactical nuclear cruise missiles, and the game-changing 1,000 mile-range Long Range Strategic Cannon are required to achieve theater parity with China. Having practiced strategic missile defense cooperation, it has to be considered that China and Russia may engage in nuclear missile offense cooperation, making it crucial to fund U.S. nuclear triad modernization.
It is also crucial to fund current theater and strategic missile defense programs to fill the gap while the NGI is being developed. Interceptors such as the Navys SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, systems such as Aegis Ships and Aegis Ashore, and an extended-range version of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system are all examples of proven, cost-effective technologies that the United States can procure now to counter current threats while simultaneously investing in technological advances to meet growing long-term demand.
Such commitments will be essential to meet Chinas nuclear challenge and convince Beijing to finally consider verifiable nuclear limitation agreements. Congress and the Trump administration must ensure funding for them when the time comes for post-coronavirus U.S. defense spending adjustments.
Get first-read access to major articles yet to be released, as well as links to thought-provoking commentaries and in-depth articles from our Asia-Pacific correspondents.
Richard D. Fisher, Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
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Missile Investments Are Needed to Meet China's Nuclear Challenge - The Diplomat
I pleaded for my life but they continued to attack me, Sadhu in Punjab mercilessly beaten, Rs 50,000 stolen as he lay bleeding – OpIndia
Posted: April 25, 2020 at 5:52 am
On Friday, a Hindu Sadhu named Swami Pushpendra Swaroop was attacked and injured by two assailants at his ashram in Hoshiarpur, Punjab. He was resting alone around 10 pm when the duo climbed the wall, entered the ashram, and attacked Swami Pushpendra with sharp-edged weapons.
He was then rushed to a local hospital. The Sadhu informed the police that the unidentified assailants tied his hands and feet, prior to attacking him. The duo also tried to strangle him, before fleeing the crime scene with 50,000 and some other items from the Ashram. I pleaded them to spare my life and take the money instead. But, they continued to injure me, Swami Puspendra recounted. He was also hit on his head with a weapon that aggravated his injuries.
According to reports, the condition of the seer remains critical.
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On April 16, two Sadhus associated with the Juna Akhara, 70-year-old Kalpavrishka Giri Maharaj, and 35-year-old Sushil Giri Maharaj along with their driver 30-year-old Nilesh Telgadewere were on their way from Mumbai to Gujarat to give Samadhi to another Sadhu. At Gadakchinchale village, a wild and frenzied crowd of over more than 100 people attacked them. The villagers deemed them as thieves and started attacking them. The police claim that their team which had rushed to the spot to rescue the 70-year-old man also came under the attack of the violent mob.
But later videos emerged which completely debunked the claim of police, as it was seen that the sadhus were in the custody of the police, but the police personnel handed them over to the mob. The mob then proceeded them to beat them to death in front of the policemen.
The Crime Investigation Department(CID) of Maharashtra police has taken over the investigation in the Palghar lynching incident of two Sadhus and their driver last week. The Maharashtra government had earlier ordered a high-level probe and suspended two policemen who showed complete dereliction of duty.
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