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The value of your investment: Connecting business to business | News, Sports, Jobs – Evening Observer

Posted: February 29, 2020 at 4:45 am


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In business, connections mean opportunities for sales, suppliers, and more. The Chamber of Commerce works to connect local businesspeople to other business people, because we understand that it drives value for all of our members.

Throughout the year, the Chautauqua County Chamber of Commerce and its six Community Chambers in Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hanover, Jamestown, Mayville-Chautauqua, and Westfield-Barcelona host Experience Chautauqua Business After Hours events. More than just a networking event, these are opportunities for all of us to learn about some of the business assets we have right here in our own backyard. And now, the Chamber offers these opportunities for FREE to our member businesses.

Chamber member companies can sign up two staff members to attend at no charge at each of these events as part of the value of your Chamber investment. To take advantage of the complimentary attendance, we ask that all personnel pre-register. Member businesses are welcome to bring as many people as they like, and the first two are free. After that, the cost is $13 for Chamber member employees. Non-members pay $20 for these events.

The Chamber has a long history of offering networking opportunities to its members. Bringing people together is a core tenet of what we do. In addition to the Business After Hours series of events, there are also networking opportunities built into our other events that focus on advocacy and awards presentations. The Chambers Annual Awards Banquet in October is the largest single business assembly in Chautauqua County each year and one of the largest gatherings of businesspeople in Western New York. In addition, the Chamber works with other partner organizations to promote opportunities that build connections for local businesspeople.

Your business investment in the Chautauqua County Chamber of Commerce makes you part of one of the largest business associations in Western New York. Our focus is on driving service and value. We thank you for your investment and your participation in the Chamber of Commerce and look forward to serving your business throughout the year.

Get involved in STEM Wars March 12

On March 12th manufacturers and schools from throughout the region will come together for STEM Wars. STEM Wars provides students an opportunity to showcase their science, technology, engineering and math talents and projects. STEM wars features a variety of competitions and an opportunity for students to meet with area manufacturers to learn about their companies and products. The event takes place at the Jamestown Community College Campus in Jamestown, bringing together over 800 students from around the region to participate in a fun and educational event, featuring STEM activities, competitions, local manufacturing technology companies, and on-site team building/leadership skills projects. Middle school and high school students are invited to participate each year, and work for weeks in advance to prepare their projects for competition.

STEM Wars is co-presented by Dream It Do It Western New York (DIDIWNY) & the New York State Technology and Engineering Educators Association (NYSTEEA) Chautauqua County Chapter. STEM Wars is produced with support from the Chautauqua County Chamber of Commerce (CCCC), Jamestown Community College (JCC), The Manufacturers Association of the Southern Tier (MAST), Pathways in Technology Early College High School (PTECH), and the Chautauqua County Education Coalition. There is still space for manufacturers who want to participate in the career fair, where students can engage with local businesses about skills, studies, products, and more. Sponsorship opportunities are still available as well. For more information, contact Tim Piazza at tpiazza@mast-wny.com or (716) 483-1833.

Celebrate St. Patricks Day in downtown Jamestown March 14

Your business can get more GREEN on St. Patricks Day! Dollars, that is. The Jamestown Community Chamber of Commerce will once again Turn the River Green for St. Patricks Day in downtown Jamestown. Everyone is invited to join us at the Riverwalk in Brooklyn Square for the event at 11am, Saturday, March 14. This event is sponsored this year by the Chautauqua County Visitors Bureau and M&T Bank. The Chamber strongly encourages local businesses to participate for the day as well. We will provide you with a standard Leprechaun Crossing poster for your business that indicates you are offering some special deal on Saturday, March 14. Just let us know that youll be participating and we will add you to our list to be handed out during the event at the Riverwalk. It could be a discounted price, a special food item, or anything of your choosing. Our goal is to move foot traffic from Brooklyn Square into to local businesses for shopping, brunch, or lunch. Any Jamestown business can participate. For more information or to get listed, contact Jamestown Community Chamber Coordinator Joanna Dahlbeck at jdahlbeck@chautauquachamber.org or call the Chamber at 484-1101.

CCIDA offers manufacturing Business-to-Business event March 18

Buyers, sellers, service providers and anyone in a manufacturing related field is encouraged to attend the Business-to-Business networking event with their peers from Chautauqua County from 7:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 18 at the Chautauqua Harbor Hotel, 10 Dunham Avenue, Celoron. This event will include dedicated time with vendors and buyers in a one-on-one speed dating format, as well as a lunch presentation featuring Patience Fairbrother, Account Director with Development Counsellors International, including findings from their latest Talent Wars study a survey of over 1,500 working age individuals on how they make decisions about jobs, locations, and best practices. This event is co-sponsored by the Chautauqua Works, Jamestown Community College, and the Manufacturers Association of the Southern Tier. The cost ranges from $35 for one attendee to up to $500 as a Champion Sponsor for 6 attendees and a premium table. For more information or to register, contact Jeanette LoBello at CCIDA at (716) 661-8901.

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The value of your investment: Connecting business to business | News, Sports, Jobs - Evening Observer

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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5 Ways Farmland Investing Compares To Traditional Real Estate – Forbes

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You may already be familiar with how to invest in traditional real estate - what to consider when comparing properties, how to think about risk, what options you have to invest more actively (or passively), etc. - but most people dont have the same fluency outside of commercial real estate.Below I outline for you the differences and similarities of farmland investing and real estate investing.Youll see how you can apply the same knowledge and frameworks from traditional real estate to evaluate farmland.

Over 11% of all the land on Earth is used for farming today. This number is even higher in America - over half (55%) of the landmass of the United States is used for agriculture. That number may surprise you, but it shouldnt: the United States is the worlds #3 producer of food and the leading global food exporter. The only two countries that produce more agriculture are China and India, both of which have over 1 billion people compared to just 330 million in America. This is because no country produces food as efficiently as the U.S., mainly because agriculture production in America is more productive than anywhere else in the world and productivity has been increasing for decades (for example, the U.S. now produces more than 2x the food today than it did during the post-WWII period, despite the fact that total active farmland has decreased).

The farmland market in the U.S. is worth nearly $2.5 trillion today. For comparison, multifamily (the biggest sub-segment of real estate outside of single family) is worth $2.9 trillion. I point this out to express the magnitude of the market opportunity, since we know many of you are familiar with multifamily. We always talk about multifamily being a huge, virtually unlimited TAM, and the reality is that farmland is almost the same size.

1 - Investment Structure

You can make either debt or equity investments in both farmland and real estate. With debt, youll receive periodic payments plus interest on the principal.For equity investments, youre getting rental income as well as a lump sum from the appreciation when the property sells.More than 30% of Americans rent rather than own; and the same is true looking at the percentage of farmers who rent the property they farm, making rental properties a viable long-term option for CRE and farmland.

FarmTogether

In about a fifth of cases, farmland owners use variable rent, which provides additional exposure to the underlying commodity itself.Its a higher risk/return arrangement, with a flat, smaller portion of rent up-front and the balance at the end of the season based on a percentage of the farmers revenue.

2 - Variables Impacting Cap Rates: Demand & Market Trends

Cap rates aim to estimate risk. Less elastic demand is perceived as less risky, hence lower cap rates.For example in CRE, this translates to lower cap rates for multifamily buildings, considering that no matter whats going on in the economy people always need a place to live.For farmland, youll see the same concept with primary cropland (wheat, soybeans, corn, cotton, rice) as theyre all essential to everyday products used for human consumption (raw or as inputs to other food); livestock feed; biofuels; and clothing.

CBRE Research

More exposure to market trends - like a preference for one food over another or a predilection for open office space - and broader economic conditions affect cap rates. Lower demand means longer or more frequent vacancies or lower rent. The inverse is also true, just look at industrial real estate over the last decade with the rise of online shopping. Cropland ideal for annual speciality crops, like most veggies, means farmers should consider trends before planting, though they still have flexibility between seasons to alter what theyre growing.Accordingly, this type of farmland will have lower cap rates than vineyards or orchards (permanent cropland) that take multiple years to mature. With permanent crops, either a mismatch to demand or an extreme weather event can mean years to re-establish a profitable business, so more risk and thus higher cap rates.

3 - More Cap Rate Variables: Location & Quality

Location and asset quality also impact risk perception for CRE and farmland.Real estate closer to a metro area (segment), with more up-to-date features (class), and in a higher tiered metro area will have a lower cap rate.Different crops have different optimal conditions. E.g. citrus, like many people, prefer the climates in certain parts of California and Florida, but a viral disease in Florida means less production and falling land values over the last decade.Even within any particular region, property quality (soil, sun, water, etc.) varies, impacting yields.Higher quality land means more rent and production. While not as straightforward as CRE classes, there are tools like American Farmland Trusts PVR (Productivity, Versatility, and Resiliency) to measure quality.

USDA

4 - Value Add Investments

If you want higher returns, you can also try to convert your real estate investment to its highest and best use.Value add in CRE ranges from less risky, light capex projects (think renovating apartments between tenants) or converting the land entirely from apartments to office space.Major changes are costlier, take longer, and are more at risk to delays, especially if you have to go through a rezoning process, but it often means more in rent and potentially higher profits at resale.

For farmland, your marginal improvements are things like increasing tillable acres or capex for improvements like replacing a well or optimizing irrigation.The bigger, costlier and thereby riskier capex investments for farmland are in permanent crops where you can either convert existing orchards to more desirable crops or through clearing acreage to establish trees or vines from scratch.

5 - Operating Agreements and Leases

Lease terms and market norms vary across real estate types and impact the magnitude of an investors opex.Farms, like industrial properties, usually use net leases in which tenants are responsible for taxes, most insurance, and most maintenance.Practically, this means relatively low opex for farmland owners as your tenant does and pays for most of the upkeep.

Over 50% of operating leases for farmland are renewed annually, like with multifamily housing.That said, the majority of landlords have much longer relationships (7+ years) with their tenants. Accordingly, the fact that the leases are renegotiated annually does not necessarily mean that theres high tenant turnover.

With historically near zero-vacancy rates for farmland and continued demand for agricultural products driven by population growth, it is becoming less likely that farm properties will sit idle without a tenant.

Conclusion

In many ways, farmland functions similar to traditional real estate and can be a great alternative. This increasingly scarce resource includes similar return drivers - rental income and appreciation - as traditional real estate as well as the ability to adjust risk. Over the last decade, tech platforms, like Fundrise for conventional real estate, have eliminated the historically high cost-to-entry, and now companies like FarmTogether are creating the same options for farmland investing.

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5 Ways Farmland Investing Compares To Traditional Real Estate - Forbes

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Bill Gates: Governments Should Invest Billions To Battle ‘Once-In-A-Century’ Pathogen – Forbes

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Bill Gates in 2018.

Topline: Bill Gates wrote in a Friday op-ed that in order to stop pandemics, governments and the private sector should invest billions, calling it a bargain in contrast to the economic pain caused by the coronavirus, which continues to spread and pummel markets around the world.

Crucial quote: In the past week, COVID-19 has started to behave a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen weve been worried about, wrote Gates. I hope its not that bad, but we should assume that it will be until we know otherwise.

Big number: $100 million. Thats how much money the Gates Foundation committed on February 5 to fight coronavirus, a ten-fold increase on the $10 million the organization had committed to in January. The funds are earmarked for vaccine research and treatment, in addition to aiding developing countries.

Key background: By the time Gates published his op-ed Friday, over 88,000 people worldwide had been sickened by coronavirus, while over 2,800 have died. The World Health Organization raised the global risk for coronavirus on Friday to very high, its most severe level. WHO also said that at least 20 different vaccines for coronavirus are in development, and expects some initial results within the next few weeks. Gates predicted large-scale vaccine trials could kick off as soon as June. Meanwhile, at least $5 trillion has been wiped off global markets as investors react to the ongoing coronavirus panic.

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Bill Gates: Governments Should Invest Billions To Battle 'Once-In-A-Century' Pathogen - Forbes

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Top investment banks for PE-backed deals in 2019: Houlihan Lokey led the pack – Mergers & Acquisitions

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Houlihan Lokey, Lincoln International, Jefferies Financial Group, William Blair and Piper Sandler Cos. rank as the top five most active M&A investment banks in 2019, based on the volume of completed private equity-backed deals in the U.S., according to PitchBook.

Besides advising on M&A deals, the investment banks on the top 10 list also had a busy year with acquisitions of their own in 2019, including two acquisitions by Houlihan Lokey and three by Stifel Financial. Piper Sandler Cos., was created when Minneapolis-based Piper Jaffray Cos. acquired New York-based Sandler ONeill & Partners in a deal representing more than half of Piper Jaffrays million market capitalization. The firm also had another acquisition in 2019 and sold a company to exit the traditional asset management business.

Here are Mergers & Acquisitions profiles of the 10 firms that led the league tables in a robust year for dealmaking.

Editors Note: This story is a collaboration between Mergers & Acquisitions and PitchBook. The profiles are reported and written by Mergers & Acquisitions, and the deal count and ranking data comes from PitchBook. We use the data available at press time. This story was compiled based on the data available on Feb. 14, 2020.

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Top investment banks for PE-backed deals in 2019: Houlihan Lokey led the pack - Mergers & Acquisitions

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Meeting at the Mill: A Conversation About a Sustainability Investment Fund – WBIW.com

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(BLOOMINGTON) Mayor John Hamilton and the Bloomington Common Council invite community members to participate in a discussion of a Sustainability Investment Fund and the local income tax that would support it. The interactive public event convening local sustainability leaders, City department heads, and council members takes place Thursday, March 5 from 7 to 9 p.m. at The Mill (642 North Madison Street).

This is the first of many chances for residents to share ideas and concerns about a fund supporting the sustainable and equitable development of our community as it confronts climate change. After a brief introductory presentation, those attending will be encouraged to rotate among a number of stations to engage with subject-matter experts. Stations will be dedicated to such topics as the Citys comprehensive response to climate change, how the fund might support social equity, and the possibilities the fund could create in areas from transit and other mobility options to sustainable housing and green infrastructure, among others.

A light meal will be provided, and reservations are not required to attend this free event. A video recording of the presentation will be available on the citys website and on CATS after the event, and residents may also share comments and suggestions about the Sustainability Investment Fund at this online form.

The investments we make and the actions we take during this decade to protect our environment and the well-being of our people are critical, as our residents have also repeatedly told us, said Mayor John Hamilton. This fund will help our community be resilient in the face of unprecedented changes, and enhance the quality of life for everyone who wants to live here.

Proposed by Mayor Hamilton January 1 and elaborated upon in his February 20 State of the City address, the fund would provide means to foster equitable and sustainable economic development as the community confronts the local effects of climate change. Over the next decade, a proposed 0.5% increase in the local income tax for Monroe County residents would raise approximately $160 million (of which City and County government would each receive approximately $80 million) for sustainable economic development. In order to be adopted, the tax must be passed by the Local Income Tax Council, which comprises the Bloomington Common Council, the Monroe County Council, and the Stinesville and Ellettsville Town Councils.

We can approach this climate challenge as an opportunity for positive transformation, investing in a more inclusive and sustainable future,said Common Council member Matt Flaherty. I believe we can do whats right for the planet and for future generations while also better meeting the needs of our residents today.

This event will kick off a series of public engagement and input sessions about the Sustainability Investment Fund, the schedule of which will be posted at a dedicated page on the Citys website.

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Meeting at the Mill: A Conversation About a Sustainability Investment Fund - WBIW.com

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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ETF Themes That Have Attracted Institutional Investment Interest – ETF Trends

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As the exchange traded fund industry grows and attracts greater attention, institutional investors have played a big part in the quick expansion in the ETF universe.

The evolution of the institutional usage of ETFs has been fun to see, Brian ODonnell, SVP, Head of Business Strategy, Northern Trust Asset Management, said at the Inside ETFs conference. Institutional investors are always looking for low-cost, beta ETFs, as you can imagine for things like transition management, securities, in lieu of futures a lot of things weve been seeing for a long time.

ODonnell also pointed to growing demand for targeted market plays or precise themes that ETFs may provide easy access to, such as real assets.

For example,infrastructure ETFs, such as the FlexShares STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index Fund (NYSEArca: NFRA), offer investors sound fundamentals and above-average dividend yields, making the asset class appealing in the current market environment. NFRA tries to reflect the performance of the STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index, which identifies equities that derive the majority of revenue from infrastructure business, providing exposure to not only infrastructure sectors, but non-traditional ones as well.

The FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resource Index Fund (NYSEArca: GUNR) provides exposure to the rising demand for natural resources and tracks global companies in the energy, metals and agriculture sectors while maintaining a core exposure to the timberlands and water resources sectors, is a part of the risk management theme. GUNR specifically identifies upstream natural resources equities based on a Morningstar industry classification system, with a balanced exposure to three traditional natural resource sectors, including agriculture, energy, and metals.

Lastly, the FlexShares Global Quality Real Estate Index Fund (NYSEArca: GQRE) targets the Northern Trust Global Quality Real Estate Index, a fundamentally-weighted index that focuses on commercial and residential REITs. Mortgage REITs, real estate finance companies, mortgage brokers and bankers, commercial and residential real estate brokers, and real estate agents and home builders are among the securities excluded from the index. GQRE also features significant ex-US exposure, a trait that should serve the fund as a slew of central banks besides the Federal Reserve consider lowering interest rates. While REITs are trading at the higher end of historical valuation ranges, the group is generating robust cash to support dividend hikes.

For more ETF-related commentary from Tom Lydon and other industry experts, visit ourvideo category.

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ETF Themes That Have Attracted Institutional Investment Interest - ETF Trends

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Everything Jim Cramer said about the stock market on ‘Mad Money,’ including market calendar, close to bottom, green investing – CNBC

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CNBC's Jim Cramer gave a preview of what's on his earnings calendar next week. The "Mad Money" host offered more stock picks for this volatile market environment. Later in the show, he sat down with Hannon Armstrong CEO Jeff Eckel to talk environmentally conscious investing.

CNBC's said Friday that the stock market remains in a feeble position, the bond market is flashing a warning sign and the investment community should be prepared for more coronavirus uncertainty.

The , now in correction territory, fell more than 1,000 in intraday trading before staging a late rally to close Friday's session down 357 points, or 1.39%. The 30-stock index dropped a total of 3,938.67 points in the past five trading days, capping off the worst week on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis.

Money managers unloaded their stock portfolios and put their funds in safe-haven instruments such as bonds, causing interest rates to fall near record lows. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield bond yields move inversely to prices was last at 1.16%.

"In other words, the bond market's screaming that the coronavirus is far worse than most people realize, global commerce will take a real hit and it might even be something similar to 2008 when all hell broke loose," the "Mad Money" host said. "I can't tell you whether the bond market's right. I'm not an epidemiologist, but I know the markets."

Cramer gave a preview of the corporate earnings and economic news that's circled on his calendar next week.

"Get ready for another rough day on Monday because I expect more COVID-19 shoes to drop this weekend," Cramer said. "You've got to be ready for a snapback [rally], though, if we keep getting so negative."

Wall Street is in deep correction territory, stocks have been discounted and the embargo on putting money in securities is now over after a tough week of trading shrouded in coronavirus uncertainty, Cramer said.

"We've had back-to-back days, though, where 10 times as many stocks were falling versus going up, and that is highly unusual," the host explained. "It suggests we're getting closer to a bottom ... though we probably may not be there yet."

Jeff Eckel, CEO of Hannon Armstrong.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Wall Street's attitude toward climate change has seemed to shift in recent months, but it is far from showing it's truly serious about sustainable investing, CEO Jeffrey Eckel told Cramer.

Eckel, whose firm focuses exclusively on investing in climate change solutions, said there are three things the Street can do to solidify its green credentials and usher in a "fundamental reshaping of finance."

The first, Eckel said on "Mad Money," is that Wall Street banks and asset managers have to ask, "Is this investment accelerating climate change or slowing it?"

The second is about transparency, Eckel said. He said firms need to disclose every one of their investments. "Not just the investment but the carbon impact," he said.

Finally, he said every investment should be calculated using a metric called "CarbonCount," a tool his company developed.

"If carbon counts and capital is scarce, we should be making the most impactful investments, and the way to do that is to measure our carbon count for every investment," Eckel argued.

In Cramer's lightning round, the "Mad Money" host delivered his thoughts on callers' favorite stock picks of the day in rapid speed.

: "Bad quarter, [I] like the company though and as it's come down I think it's a buy. I was surprised how weak the quarter was, though."

: "Cybersecurity. I like. 's a little better, but I think you've got a good one there."

Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram

Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com

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Everything Jim Cramer said about the stock market on 'Mad Money,' including market calendar, close to bottom, green investing - CNBC

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Google, Toyota invest in WhereIsMyTransport to map transport in emerging cities – TechCrunch

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In emerging markets, up to 80% of the population may have to rely on informally-run public transport to get around. Literally, privately-run buses and cars. But journey-planning apps that work well for commuters in developed markets like New York or London do not work well in emerging markets, which is why you cant just flip open an app like Citymapper in Lagos, Nigeria. Furthermore, mobility is a fundamental driver of social, political, and economic growth. If you cannot get around, you cant grow as a country, so its pretty important for these emerging economies.

WhereIsMyTransport specialises in mapping these formal and informal public transport networks in emerging markets. They have mapped 34 cities in Africa and are mapping cities in India, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Its integrated mobility API includes proprietary algorithms, features and capabilities designed for complex transit networks in these emerging markets.

Its now raised a $7.5 million Series A funding round led by Liil Ventures, that also includes returning investors Global Innovation Fund and Goodwell Investments, plus new strategic investment from Google, Nedbank, and Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TTC).

The platform now has more than 750,000 km of routes in 39 cities and the new strategic investment will drive further international expansion.

Devin de Vries, said: We make the invisible visible, by collecting all kinds of data related to public transport and turning the data into information that can be shared with the people who need it most. In emerging markets, the mobility ecosystem is complex; informal public transport doesnt behave like formal public transport. Data and technology solutions that work well in London or San Francisco wouldnt make anything like the same impact, if any at all, in the cities where we work. Our solutions are designed specifically to overcome these contextual challenges.

Mr. Masato Yamanami, Automotive Divisions CEO of Toyota Tsusho Corporation, also said that our divisions global network, that covers 146 countries, is primarily focused on new emerging countries where people rely on informal public transport. Through strategic collaboration with WhereIsMyTransport, we will establish better and more efficient mobility services that help to resolve social challenges and contribute to the overall economic development of nations, primarily emerging nations.

Finally, Alix Peterson Zwane, Chief Executive Officer of Global Innovation Fund, said: Informal and often unreliable mass transit is a significant problem that disproportionately affects poor people. We are excited to continue to work with WhereIsMyTransport to make mass transportation in emerging cities more accessible and more efficient.

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Google, Toyota invest in WhereIsMyTransport to map transport in emerging cities - TechCrunch

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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Invest Like The Markets Will Overcome The Coronavirus, Because They Will – Forbes

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Recent financial headlines have been consumed with the coronavirus, which after originating in China has since spread to other countries rapidly, advancing into South Korea, Italy and Iran before making its way to other parts of the world, including the U.S. In all, the number of infections has topped 83,000, while the death toll is approaching 3,000, according to the most recent estimates.

Its hard to know for sure what type of long-term risk this will present to the market. Whats clear now, however, is that investors are spooked. That has prompted the worst week for equities since the financial crisis, punctuated by Thursdays nearly 1,200-point dive, which has the indexes squarely in correction territory.

Make no mistake, this will pose a serious test to many countries healthcare systems and economies. At the same time, markets are resilient, always bouncing back from big challenges, whether its the bursting of the dot-com bubble or other health crises like SARS.

This time around, the same will likely hold true. Despite this weeks carnage, U.S. markets are still up since the end of May, while the broader economy remains strong, with last months job and wage growth numbers exceeding expectations.

Of course, a global supply chain disruption that lingers for months could result in a meaningful downtick in corporate earnings. Apple, for one, has warned that the coronavirus will hamper iPhone production and sales.

A long line of other large firms have issued similar warnings, including United Airlines, Microsoft and Mastercard. Apart from Clorox, in fact, its hard to think of a company that has not been impacted negatively. By year-end, however, its reasonable to expect that supply lines and demand for goods will return to normal.

Another reason to remain somewhat optimistic is that the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world will likely do all they can to prop up local businesses and prevent short-term consumption reductions from spiraling out of control. That means already low interest rates will go even lower, boosting the case for equities over the long term.

BUYING OPPORTUNITIES

All this presents an opportunity for investors. Airlines, theme parks, movies and cruise lines whose businesses rely on large groups of people coming in close proximity to each other are among the worst hit. (Cruise line revenues might have quite some time to wait before rising again, since travelers often have to book their tickets months in advance).

But big companies in these industries that were stable before the coronavirus outbreak will stay in operation after all the dust settles. So, for investors, this is a chance to pounce, especially when many of these firms are trading at a sizable discount.

Airlines such as Delta, theme park operators and movie producers like Disney, or even cruise ship companies such as Royal Caribbean are unlikely to suffer for long. The same is true for major, state-favored Chinese firms, such as Alibaba or Baidu.

X-FACTORS

What could go wrong with this scenario? A lot. The biggest risk is that consumption across major economies begins to evaporate, which could inflict major damage on a long line of small and mid-sized businesses, possibly causing them to fold and triggering localized recessions across the globe.

Similarly, a serious domestic coronavirus outbreak would significantly expand the timeline for downside risk. Luckily, though, the U.S. is far more prepared to contend with the fallout, not only because the element of surprise is gone, but also thanks to the quality of its medical facilities and emergency response capabilities.

Its certainly conceivable that even the gloomiest of forecasts could come true. Nevertheless, markets and hard-hit sectors will recover. They always do.

After all, major stock price slides are relatively common over the long-term, with markets averaging about three 5% pull backs per year since 1950. For more historical perspective, consider that the S&P shed 5.5% over an eight-day stretch in the wake of the SARS outbreak during March 2003. A year later, it was up more than 35%.

The markets will always face challenges. Without discounting the devastation that the coronavirus has heaped on thousands of families, this is simply the latest one and we will be all right when its over. So, its time to take advantage of this recent tumble in prices as an opportunity to get aggressive.

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Invest Like The Markets Will Overcome The Coronavirus, Because They Will - Forbes

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February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

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A Good Reason Why You Should Stay Invested Despite the Bloodbath – Yahoo Finance

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Keeping calm when markets crash is easier said than done. It is human nature to be fearful when things look bad and the outlook suddenly becomes bleak. Today, Mr. Market (as Benjamin Graham puts it) is testing the patience and courage of investors once again. The Dow declined more than 1,000 points twice this week, making it difficult for investors to keep a clear head.

Source: CNBC.

American stocks have declined for seven consecutive days, and according to Bloomberg data, February 2020 is on its way to becoming the worst month since December 2018.

Source: Bloomberg.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index were down over 10.5% as of Thursday, making this week the worst since the days of the financial crisis.

If ever there was a need to reiterate the importance of staying invested in equity markets, it's now. Investors need reassurance that things will return to their normal state soon, but right now, there's panic.

SunTrust Chief Market Strategist Keith Lerner told Bloomberg on Friday:

"Investors are selling stocks first and asking questions later. We are seeing signs of pure liquidation. 'Get me out at any cost' seems to be the prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case for the U.S. economy is recession."

While that might provide some relief to investors in the sense that a renowned market commentator does not believe a recession is in the cards, investors need something more concrete than that to remain bold and go against the grain.

For 120 years, there has been one clear winner

Credit Suisse Research Institute released an important set of market data spanning 120 years, confirming that none of the popular asset classes could match the returns provided by equity markets. The report, prepared in collaboration with professors from London Business School and Cambridge University, revealed the following performance statistics.

Asset class

Annualized real return between 1900 and 2020

Equities

5.2%

Bonds

2%

Treasury bills

0.8%

The significant outperformance of equity markets reveals one thing: the risk-reward factor is always at play and as an economy grows, so will the stock markets. The ride is not always smooth, however, and there will be speedbumps along the way.

Trying to time the markets is a costly mistake, as Warren Buffet told CNBC earlier this week:

"There have been seven Republican Presidents after that (since buying his first stock at the age of 11) and seven Democratic Presidents and I have bought stocks under every one of them. I haven't bought stocks every day, there have been a few times I felt stocks were really quite high, but that is very seldom."

Further elaborating on his investment career, the guru said that he has bought stocks each year since making his first investment at a very young age. This highlights one important action that could deliver long-term success to investors; buy stocks when they are seemingly cheap, regardless of the macroeconomic or geopolitical outlook for America in the coming years. The country has survived many recessions, epidemics, property market bubbles and two World Wars. None of this could materially impact the long-term performance of stocks, however. Right when it looked as if things would never recover, American markets surprised investors.

Changes in investor sentiment could result in significant volatility in stock prices. However, none of this would likely matter in the long term as much as staying invested does. Numbers don't lie, at least not as much as sentiment and gut feelings do.

Story continues

One more reason to stay calm

Even though many investors might not be aware of this, missing just a few market days could completely erode the profitability of a portfolio. As surprising as this might sound, empirical evidence proves it. In 2019, JPMorgan Asset Management conducted a market performance review to evaluate this phenomena, using data from Jan. 1, 1999 to Dec. 31, 2018.

Source: JPMorgan.

Liquidating a portfolio and waiting for a better time to get in is a common strategy used by fearful investors. However, if such an investor failed to time the markets, which is almost a certainty, and missed just 20 days that ironically happened to be the best days of the market, he would have ended up losing money even though the market performance was positive in this period. What is even more interesting is that investors can never know with any degree of certainty when a bear market will turn bullish.

There's only one way to avoid making this mistake: to remain invested even when markets are crashing. Even though the rational decision might seem to be turning stocks to cash and parking in an interest-bearing account, the numbers prove this is a costly mistake. If, however, an investor had a mechanism to predict the best 10, 20 and 30 days of the market in advance, it would be best to liquidate and wait for such sunny times. But not even institutional investors have been able to decipher such a way to do this, even with the massive advance in quantitative analysis techniques.

Takeaway: Be patient

There's enough data to suggest that trusting U.S. markets even when they are crashing is the right decision. The best way to do this during trying times is to avoid constantly checking stock prices and the value of an investment portfolio as the mostly red numbers might prompt investors to act irrationally. Staying calm and patient is the key, and the market will do its magic as time passes by.

It seems appropriate to end this analysis with something Buffett told CNBC in 2016.

"If you had a chance to buy into a good company in your hometown...and you knew it was a good company and knew good people were running it, and you bought in at a fair price, you wouldn't want to get a quote every day."

Disclosure: I do not own any stocks mentioned in this article.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

See the original post:
A Good Reason Why You Should Stay Invested Despite the Bloodbath - Yahoo Finance

Written by admin

February 29th, 2020 at 4:45 am

Posted in Investment


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